Select mainland property stocks gained ground in the afternoon session. At the time of writing, Agile Group (03383) rose 8% to HK$0.27; Shimao Group (00813) advanced 6.7% to HK$0.207; China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (00081) increased 5.53% to HK$2.29; and R&F Properties (02777) climbed 4.08% to HK$0.51. Ping An Securities noted in a research report that recent market attention on the property sector chain has been heating up. The market previously held low expectations for sales at the beginning of 2026; however, according to Iceberg Index data, real-time transactions of pre-owned homes in key cities saw a significant month-on-month increase in January compared to December of the previous year, showing strength even in the off-season, while the number of pre-owned home listings has declined sequentially. This week, Poly Development released its earnings forecast, preemptively alleviating performance pressure on the sector. The overall performance of the traditional property sector has been significantly weaker than the broader market, leaving limited room for further downside. Both transaction volumes and prices in the property market have undergone substantial adjustments since the 2021 peak and may be approaching a bottom range; from a medium-term perspective, the sector already holds some allocation value. Guosen Securities stated that while the fundamental state of the property market declined noticeably in the fourth quarter of 2025, over the past month from late 2025 to early 2026, home prices have ended their sharp decline, fundamentals have steadily improved, and policy expectations have gradually increased. Although it is still premature to call a bottom, based on the current combination of volume and price, the probability of home prices stopping their decline in 2026 has increased from the previous "impossible" to at least "possible"; if a "trading price for volume" scenario does not recur after the Spring Festival, this probability could further increase to "likely." Furthermore, the adjustment in property stocks in December 2025 was already quite substantial, and it is recommended to adopt a more optimistic stance towards property stocks.
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