China's latest round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will take effect at midnight on July 31, according to a report. Industry analysts widely predict an increase in fuel prices this time around.
During the current pricing period, escalating conflicts between the US and Iran, coupled with renewed crises in the Red Sea and Houthi attacks on Saudi oil vessels, have blocked Saudi crude exports. These events have expanded the scope of oil supply disruptions, fueling market concerns and driving crude oil prices higher. International crude oil values have risen on a week-over-week basis, with the rate of change remaining in positive territory.
Calculations based on data as of July 29 show that after nine working days, the reference crude oil change rate stands at 15.38%, implying an increase of 680 yuan per tonne for gasoline and diesel. Analysts suggest international crude oil prices may maintain a relatively strong trend, leading to an anticipated rise in the retail price cap for refined oil products. At the current rate, it is estimated that by midnight on July 31, the price of 92# gasoline will rise by about 0.53 yuan per liter, while 0# diesel will increase by around 0.58 yuan per liter. Another analyst predicts the price hike is a certainty, though the final adjustment margin must still be confirmed by official authorities.
So far this year, China has undergone 14 rounds of fuel price adjustments, resulting in a pattern of nine increases, four decreases, and one halt. To mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices, the government has implemented regulatory measures on fuel prices for two consecutive rounds. If the current adjustment follows expectations, the 2026 adjustment pattern will shift to ten increases, four decreases, and one halt. In line with the ten-working-day principle, the next retail fuel price adjustment window will open on August 14, 2026.
Looking ahead, analysts indicate that geopolitical conflicts combined with peak demand season may support short-term international oil prices above $80 per barrel. On the supply side, the US-Iran conflict could escalate further, potentially halting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Houthi forces are also imposing a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, increasing supply pressure. Ongoing concerns about supply issues persist, with the global oil market remaining in a state of undersupply. On the demand side, the ongoing US-Iran conflict continues to weigh on the global economy and crude consumption, with refineries in several Asian countries operating at low utilization rates. Although the traditional summer driving season in the US is still ongoing, providing seasonal support to local demand, overall demand improvement remains sluggish.
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