Abstract
Xcel Energy will report fourth-quarter results on February 05, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview summarizes recent financial performance, segment trends, consensus projections for revenue, margin, net profit, and adjusted EPS, alongside institutional viewpoints and the majority analyst stance.
Market Forecast
Consensus expectations point to adjusted EPS of 0.96 and total revenue of 3.64 billion for the quarter, with year-over-year revenue decline of 3.60% and adjusted EPS growth of 9.82%. Model inputs imply gross profit margin trending near the prior quarter’s 51.21% and net profit margin near 13.38%, with net profit shaped by seasonal electric volumes and fuel cost normalization. The main business is regulated electric operations, expected to anchor the quarter with revenue around 3.64 billion and a modest decline year-over-year due to milder weather and pass-through fuel cost reductions. The most promising segment is gas distribution, which is positioned to post steadier year-over-year trends off a smaller base, supported by rate mechanisms, but remains a secondary revenue driver.
Last Quarter Review
Xcel Energy’s last reported quarter delivered revenue of 3.92 billion, a gross profit margin of 51.21%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.52 billion, a net profit margin of 13.38%, and adjusted EPS of 1.24 with a year-over-year decline of 0.80%. The quarter’s net profit rose quarter-on-quarter by 18.02%, reflecting operating leverage on a normalized cost profile and favorable timing in regulatory recovery. In the main business, regulated electric revenue was 3.64 billion, while gas distribution contributed 0.26 billion and other businesses 0.01 billion, underscoring the dominant weight of electric operations and the relatively small, but strategically important, gas segment.
Current Quarter Outlook
Regulated Electric Operations
Regulated electric operations remain the core driver this quarter, with revenue modeled at 3.64 billion and forecast EBIT at 0.77 billion, implying a margin mix influenced by fuel cost pass-throughs, load profiles, and rate case timing. Seasonality and weather normalization can weigh on top-line growth versus the prior year, yet constructive regulatory outcomes and capital additions to rate base support margin resilience. Earnings sensitivity will center on load trends in service territories and the cadence of recovery mechanisms linked to fuel and purchased power. The electric segment’s performance is further shaped by ongoing investment in grid modernization, transmission upgrades, and renewable integration, which expand the rate base. Execution on these projects and alignment with approved regulatory plans should sustain operating income even if headline revenue faces short-term variability due to fuel cost deflation. Investors will monitor any commentary on authorized returns and the timing of new rates, as these factors can stabilize EPS even amid mixed revenue comparisons.
Natural Gas Distribution
The natural gas segment, at 0.26 billion of revenue last quarter, is smaller but can provide steadier contribution this quarter due to decoupling mechanisms and cost-recovery features in several jurisdictions. While headline revenue is sensitive to commodity costs and weather, earnings are underpinned by regulated frameworks that aim to neutralize volatility. Over the quarter, gas system investments—particularly safety, pipeline integrity, and replacement programs—continue to enter rate base and support EBIT consistency. Year-over-year comparisons may be less volatile than the electric side because gas commodity pass-throughs are often more directly offset by riders, though mild weather could trim volumes. Management guidance typically frames gas as a stable earnings contributor, and any update on capital programs and rate outcomes will be relevant for gauging near-term EPS visibility. Even with a smaller revenue base, the gas unit’s reliable mechanisms can modestly cushion overall margin pressures.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Investors will focus on margin quality, regulatory cadence, and capital execution. Margin quality will hinge on gross profit stability around 51.21% and net profit margin near 13.38%, driven by cost discipline and timely recovery of fuel and purchased power expenses. Regulatory cadence—rate case decisions, interim rates, and rider adjustments—will influence earnings recognition and visibility, potentially offsetting revenue softness. Capital execution across renewables, transmission, and grid upgrades is essential: cost control and on-time delivery can support EBIT near the 0.77 billion forecast and underpin adjusted EPS of 0.96. The interplay of these drivers will likely determine whether the company meets or slightly exceeds consensus, with load trends and weather acting as swing factors.
Analyst Opinions
The majority of recent institutional views lean bullish, with multiple Buy ratings outweighing Hold ratings. Evercore ISI, BMO Capital, Bank of America Securities, and KeyBanc have maintained or upgraded to Buy stances, citing supportive rate base growth, earnings guidance, and dividend visibility, while Morgan Stanley and UBS have maintained Hold. Evercore ISI’s Nicholas Amicucci and BMO’s James Thalacker emphasize constructive regulation and capital program execution as foundations for EPS growth, aligning with a forecast of adjusted EPS at 0.96 and EBIT at 0.77 billion in the quarter. Bank of America Securities’ Ross Fowler highlights earnings and dividend growth guidance as reasons for a positive bias, reinforcing expectations for resilient margins despite revenue headwinds from fuel cost pass-through normalization. The majority view anticipates Xcel Energy to deliver in line to slightly better-than-expected earnings through steadier operating income and regulatory support, while monitoring load trends, weather impacts, and any updates on rate proceedings as the main incremental catalysts for near-term stock performance.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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