After 2,240% Run, Tesla Visionary Leaves UK Fund Bleeding Money

Bloomberg2022-08-18

For years, he rode the likes of Amazon.com Inc. and Tesla Inc. to the moon, earning a reputation as the techno-visionary oracle of Edinburgh. Now, James Anderson, bull-market hero, has left behind a ...

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Now, James Anderson, bull-market hero, has left behind a precarious legacy.It’s been three months since Anderson, 63, retired from Baillie Gifford, the century-old Scottish money manager he transformed into anunlikely power-investorin global technology.Awkward timing, to say the least.Before Cathie Wood and Ark Invest, before crypto and “stonks,” Anderson began transforming Baillie Gifford’s prosaically namedScottish Mortgage Investment Trust— founded in 1909 to finance rubber plantationsand later Baillie Gifford’s flagship product — into one of the world’s top performing funds of its kind for a decade.Baillie Gifford offices in EdinburghPhotographer: Robert Ormerod/BloombergBut the tech stock meltdown has left the firm bleeding assets this year, losing a staggering 100 billion pounds ($122 billion) by the end of June. What was already a tall task for the next generation of the firm’s stock-pickers — convincing investors they can follow in Anderson's footsteps — has added a new hurdle: making the case that they should.Therecent market rallywill have helped, but changing course doesn’t appear to be an option. More than a dozen former and current employees and clients, most of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity in recent weeks, depict a firm that fell under the spell of Anderson’s success. A company partner who held no formal management position for years ended up driving Baillie Gifford’s entire approach to markets.What Anderson has left behind appears emblematic not only of this year’s market downturnbut also of the excesses that inflated a pandemic bubble in just about everything. Portfolio managers have been deployed to try to calm angsty clients.The uneasy mood was evident in mid-June as Scottish Mortgage investors gathered in London to hear what Baillie Gifford had to say about the drastic reversal of fortune.The crowd sat solemnly beneath dim chandeliers in a rented ballroom as Anderson’s successors, Tom Slater andLaurence Burns, called for patience, confident picks would pay off in the long run — that is, in 10 or even 20 years.Baillie Gifford famously piled into Amazon, Tesla and others that would soon catch fire in the bull market.Photographer: Rachel Jessen/BloombergSome attendees wondered out loud if Slater and Burns could deliver by following their old boss’s playbook. One asked if it would take 20 more years to figure out if Anderson really was a genius stock-picker or merely someone who lucked out in a bull market.“We are not sitting, looking into a crystal ball trying to predict what’s going to happen,” Slater said. “Wealth doesn’t come from predicting stuff but from a small number of exceptional companies.”It’s been quite a comedown. From its Edinburgh headquarters 3,200 miles from Wall Street, Baillie Gifford emerged in the 2000s and 2010s as one of theworld’s top stock-pickers,marketing the Anderson mystique and attracting ordinary investors and major pension funds across the US and Britain.Anderson set aside conventional investment metrics and staked his clients’ money on a relatively small number of risky, high-growth stocks. With a go-big-or-go-home ethos, he pressed portfolio managers to focus on sweeping, global themes, rather than investing geographically.And so, Baillie Gifford famously piled into Amazon, Tesla and others that would soon catch fire in the bull market. For years, the only investor who owned more of Tesla was Elon Musk. (Douglas Brodie,a partner and portfolio manager for another Baillie Gifford team, initially drove the Tesla investment in the early 2010s, but Anderson got most of the credit — and themedia attention).The results were extraordinary. From 2005 to its peak last year, Scottish Mortgage returned 2,240%.But what goes up usually comes down — in this case, down hard. With high-orbit tech stocks hurtling back to earth, Scottish Mortgage has plummeted 32% this year as of Aug. 16, its assets dropping to 14 billion pounds. All Baillie Gifford funds tracked by Bloomberg have fallen from 1% to 40% this year. Overall assets under management stood at 231 billion poundsat the end of June, versus 336 billion pounds at the start of the year.From Menlo Park to Shenzhen, Big Tech to startups, a pullback has followed a decade of giddy exuberance. SoftBank Group Corp.reporteda record 3.16 trillion yen ($23.4 billion) net loss on Aug. 8 after its Vision Fund, the world’s largest technology fund, got hammered.Given the shifting landscape, the question is when, or maybe whether, Baillie Gifford can regain its footing and help reinforce the business of stock picking that’s been undermined in recent years by the popularity of cheaper, index-tracking funds.James Anderson at the Allen & Co. Media and Technology Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho in 2019.Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/BloombergIndeed, other big name investors came unstuck after stellar returns. Bill Miller, the manager whose unprecedented record of beating the Standards & Poor’s 500 Index made him aninvesting legend, couldn’t relive his past glories after a sharp turn in his fortunes.More dramatic was Neil Woodford’sfall from grace in the UK. The star money manager mesmerized investors for years with his performance. But following a poor run, clients startedpulling their cash, leading to the suspension of his flagship fund in 2019.Baillie Gifford is far more than one fund and has other strategies that don’t pursue the kind of returns that made Anderson a magnet for retail clients, who would flock to hear him speak at investor forums. But, over the time, the firm tilted toward his investing philosophy.Anderson, now chairman of Swedish investment companyKinnevik AB, waves off his influence. In an email, he dismissed the idea that his bull-market success and celebrity status came to define Baillie Gifford.“The influence was mostly because the high growth worked so well for a prolonged period and therefore — as is the way in finance — it attracted more attention and even imitation,” Anderson said of his sway over Baillie Gifford. “Maybe this always bothered me more than people realized.”In addition to Amazon and Tesla, big-name scores included Covid-19 vaccine maker Moderna Inc.Photographer: Guillaume Souvant/AFP/Getty ImagesBut during a tenure spanning four decades, he shook off the firm’s staid reputation and fundamentally changed its DNA. At a time when low-cost index funds were upending the investment business, he pushed the partnership in the opposite direction: He challenged portfolio managers to set aside indexes and instead find companies that would solve big problems. In addition to Amazon and Tesla, big-name scores included Covid-19 vaccine maker Moderna Inc.When markets were going their way, Anderson and his acolytes could steamroll most doubters. Unabashedly contrarian and sometimes quick-tempered, he sniffed at what he viewed as groupthink by bean-counting CFAs. Let others worry about quarterly results and P/E ratios. Anderson wanted to spot the super trends that would shape the future.People who questioned him or issued a negative report on one of his stock picks often found themselves on the losing side a heated argument, current and former employees say. Others learned to keep their mouths shut. To avoid office distractions, Anderson eventually stopped sharing his own research in Baillie Gifford’s library.Before long, Anderson and his crew stopped attending weekly investment meetings, dismissing the gatherings as a venue of low-brow short-termism. Baillie Gifford later made the confabs optional before binning them altogether.A scruffy, sometimes rumpled character with a professorial air — one former colleague recalls Anderson wearing an ink-stained shirt one day, another remembers his poorly knotted ties — Anderson came to be seen as the mad genius of Baillie Gifford. (In a telephone interview, Anderson conceded that he could be hot-tempered due to the stresses of the job.) His star rising, heenthralled everyday investors, scouted Silicon Valley and hung out with Jeff Bezos in Sun Valley.Insiders say that with Anderson gone there’s more room for flexibility, but Baillie Gifford is in so deep it might be hard to go back. Wholly owned by its roughly 50 partners, the firm has staked its future on the belief that it can spot the next big thing. Then, the thinking goes, it can do what Anderson did: Get in early — and hold on for the ride.Before July’s bounce, the ride has mostly gone in one direction: down. Baillie Gifford is a top-three holder of Moderna (down 22% year to Aug. 16); Shopify Inc. (down 68%); and Spotify Technology SA (down 41%). It’s also a major holder of Illumia Inc. (down 33%) and Peloton Interactive Inc. (down 58%), among others.Stock picks are only one problem. During the bull years, Anderson and his team also became go-to financiers for a range of tech startups. Flush with investor dollars, they seeded young businesses in hopes of reaping outsize returns once the companies went public.Unlisted companies accounted forroughly a thirdof Scottish Mortgage’s holdings at the end of June, according to company documents. The fund got in on the bull-market rush over the fledgling air-taxi business, picking up stakes inLilium NVand Joby Aviation Inc. It also bought into crypto financial-services company Blockchain.com and Northvolt AB, a Swedish battery developer.When or if many of those bets might pay off is anyone’s guess. One pick, biotech company Ginkgo Bioworks, went public last year, during the waning days of the craze over special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs. Since then, the stock has fallen 53%.And while Anderson was the first to invest in private companies at Baillie Gifford, even more conservative investment trusts run by the firm have exposure to the asset class, albeit at much lower levels.Even Baillie Gifford insiders concede Anderson’s departure in April,telegraphedfor more than a year, came at a particularly fraught moment. The firm created a success story around Anderson and his investment philosophy and used that rosy narrative to market itself.James Budden, global head of marketing, acknowledged — with some limits — Anderson’s long-standing role in shaping Baillie Gifford. “He was a strong influence, but this took 20 years to play out,” said Budden, the only person Baillie Gifford made available to speak on the record. “Scottish Mortgage didn’t immediately become what it is today. Yes, he did define a lot of the investment thinking.”For better and worse, Anderson appears to have left a lasting mark. University graduates who join the firm’s training program no longer get schooled in financial statements as meticulously as they used to, people familiar with the matter said. People who’ve left recently say risk management could be improved.For years, the only investor who owned more of Tesla was Elon Musk.Photographer: Toru Hanai/BloombergBudden, the marketing chief, says trainees must still learn accounting but adds that success at Baillie Gifford takes vision, too. “We do have risk controls, though people think we don’t,” he said. “For us the biggest risk is finding the wrong companies and missing the big opportunities, but we also do proper risk analysis.”For now, Baillie Gifford seems hostage to the markets. Aninvestment teamcalled Global Alpha, createdby former senior partner Charles Plowden in 2005 as a counterweight to Anderson’s go-big philosophy, has weathered the storm better than Scottish Mortgage by investing in more, less volatile stocks.Global Alpha today manages 39 billion pounds, more than any other group in the firm. Yet, all the same, it still holds a crop of Anderson’s tech darlingslike Moderna and Tesla. The firm says any similarities between portfolios are unintentional and that each team does its own research.All the same, the 170-person client services team has been reemphasizingthe investment philosophy Anderson helped to build. Their line: This, too, shall pass — and Baillie Gifford will go on to greater heights as its bets pay off over coming decades. In webinars, letters and phone calls, the team has urged investors not to panic.The partnership keeps looking ahead. It plans to hire more people and move to a new glass-paneled, seven-story headquarters being built in a new development in Edinburgh’s West End. At a recent company-wide meeting, two senior partners said Baillie Gifford would stick to its guns. 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