Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Car Association, wrote that the most striking feature of the October auto market was the "weak peak season," with the traditional "Silver October" falling seriously short of expectations. Because Mid-Autumn Festival fell in September, October had more selling days and performed better month-on-month than September. After the autumn harvest, incomes were secured and the weather turned colder, so demand for vehicle use should have become more prominent, yet the purchasing performance of first-time buyers — the group that supports growth in the autumn and winter car market — was relatively poor this year. The sluggishness of the A00 and A segments shows that recent policies have mainly supported consumption upgrades, and the higher threshold for subsidy eligibility has somewhat suppressed vehicle purchase demand among those who do not yet own a car. The fuel-vehicle market has long lacked new product launches while usage costs keep rising, which is not conducive to fully unleashing the purchasing power of first-time buyers. Recently, oil prices have stayed elevated and nonferrous metals and mining inputs have risen in price, leaving consumers with both lower purchasing power and weaker willingness to buy.
1. Overall auto market remained stable in 2026
In October 2026, total vehicle sales reached 3.01 million units, down 9% year-on-year; from January to October 2026, total vehicle sales were 26.26 million units, a cumulative decline of 5%. In 2026, the truck and bus markets were relatively strong while the passenger car market was somewhat weaker; combined with strong exports and a weak domestic market, overall manufacturer sales trends were relatively stable. In 2026, the performance of auto groups diverged sharply, with companies such as Byd Company Limited (002594) rapidly strengthening and their leading position increasingly consolidating; traditional large groups such as SAIC faced enormous pressure; and companies such as GEELY AUTO (00175) and Chery (09973) generally maintained relatively strong momentum.
2. Exports as a share of total sales
The export share of auto companies has risen substantially, reaching 35% in October, though slightly below the third-quarter export share, as the domestic auto market strengthened toward year-end. In October, "exports surpassing domestic demand" became a core focus for some automakers; exports effectively stabilized wholesale volumes and profits, with some companies exporting more than 50%, and a rapidly growing number of manufacturers seeing exports account for 60% of their total volume. Export sales have become the core driver of automaker growth.
3. Performance of major automaker groups diverged sharply
Comparing the 2021 chart above with the strong performance of some automakers in 2022, industry growth diverged severely. The pandemic at the start of 2022 put greater pressure on traditional automakers; especially with the impact of new energy plus the pandemic, state-owned large groups diverged, with GAC (02238) and Chery performing excellently, as Chery's commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle segments both performed very well. In the north, FAW, Great Wall (02333), and BAIC all faced pressure. In early 2023, new energy drove divergence in the auto market. Among the three major central state-owned enterprises, performance diverged overall, and some state-owned firms fell behind. New energy companies such as Byd Company Limited performed very well; Chery and Tesla (TSLA.US) were relatively strong this year. Second-tier automakers diverged, and due to the transition between old and new growth drivers and the persistent loss pressure in new energy vehicles, small and medium-sized independent brands diverged severely and were sluggish. In 2024, the lineup and landscape of auto groups changed comprehensively. Byd Company Limited cut prices on new products and raised volumes; due to booming passenger car sales demand and overseas contributions, Chery, Geely, and Dongfeng performed very well, while SAIC remained in a sharp decline. The growth rates of new energy players Byd Company Limited and Tesla diverged. The manufacturer landscape in the auto market changed dramatically, and the industry showed severe divergence in growth rates. Starting in 2025, private enterprises replaced state-owned enterprises as the main force in the industry, with Geely, Byd Company Limited, Chery, and Great Wall maintaining relatively high growth rates. In 2026, leading in sales is the key goal that all state-owned enterprises are striving for; although the market is severe and sluggish, Byd Company Limited returned to first place. SAIC, Geely, Chery, and BAIC performed relatively strongly from January to October this year, with improved growth rates. Xiaomi (01810) and Tesla performed excellently overall. In 2026, the automaker landscape was relatively stable, and the position of independent brands rose substantially. In October, manufacturer sales were generally good, but weak domestic retail dragged on passenger car manufacturer performance. Some manufacturers such as Changan showed very strong month-on-month momentum versus September, while Byd Company Limited and Geely strengthened year-on-year. Independent automakers with strong exports performed excellently, while groups with joint ventures faced enormous pressure.
4. Production and sales trends of narrow passenger car enterprises
In October 2026, total narrow passenger car sales were 2.63 million units, down 10% year-on-year; from January to October 2026, total narrow passenger car sales were 22.35 million units, down 6% year-on-year. In recent years, new energy vehicle technology innovation and new product competitiveness have continued to grow, while new fuel vehicle launches have been weak. At the start of 2026, new energy vehicles were in an adjustment period, dealer confidence was insufficient, and high oil prices suppressed growth. In 2026, independent passenger car makers were comprehensively ahead. In October, major automakers were generally weaker, while independent brands were extremely strong. Due to high oil prices, joint-venture automakers were weaker in October. Byd Company Limited led, GEELY AUTO ranked second, and Chery Automobile remained in the top three in October, with the scale of the top three increasingly close. Joint ventures such as FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen performed relatively sluggishly. The lineup of major passenger car manufacturers diverged rapidly; export-focused enterprises and new energy-focused manufacturers performed relatively strongly, and divergence among joint ventures was especially obvious, with FAW-Volkswagen and Tesla relatively strong.
5. Production and sales trends of new energy passenger car enterprises
In October 2026, total new energy passenger car manufacturer sales were 1.77 million units, up 10% year-on-year; from January to October 2026, total new energy passenger car manufacturer sales were 13.2 million units, up 10% year-on-year. In 2026, pressure from scrappage-and-update subsidies was high, oil prices surged, consumption was sluggish, and demand for new energy vehicles was weak while exports soared, creating a huge contrast between domestic sales and exports of new energy vehicles. In 2026, Byd Company Limited maintained an absolute lead, but pressure on plug-in hybrid growth was relatively high. Geely was generally strong, while Chery, Leapmotor, and others saw relatively strong new energy growth.
6. Production and sales trends of traditional powertrain passenger car enterprises
In 2025, traditional fuel narrow passenger car sales were 14.22 million units, down 5% year-on-year; from January to October 2026, sales were 9.15 million units, down 22%. With oil prices staying high, the domestic fuel vehicle market continued to be relatively weak in 2026, while exports were relatively strong, supporting the overall relative stability of fuel vehicles. Thanks to export support, fuel vehicle performance diverged overall in 2026, with independent brands performing extremely strongly and major joint-venture automakers rapidly weakening in the short term. Due to the sustained impact of high oil prices since March, the overall performance of domestic fuel vehicles in 2026 was severely sluggish, with seven consecutive months of roughly 40% declines since April, creating enormous market pressure.
7. Bus enterprise production and sales trends by category
In 2025, cumulative bus sales for the full year totaled 920,000 units, with cumulative growth of 15%; from January to October 2026, cumulative bus sales totaled 740,000 units, down 2% year-on-year, with exports and new energy logistics vehicles providing relatively good support. After the year-end push in 2025, the bus market gradually strengthened in 2026. SAIC-GM-Wuling performed very strongly, and leading manufacturers such as Maxus saw generally strong sales in recent months. Demand in the logistics light bus and minibus markets fluctuated greatly, and exports contributed enormously. In 2026, Jiangling Motors and Maxus had relatively good commercial vehicle growth trends, and in October logistics vehicle companies such as Wuling, Changan, and Maxus generally led.
8. Truck enterprise production and sales trends by category
In 2025, truck sales were 3.72 million units, with cumulative growth of 11%; from January to October 2026, truck sales were 3.17 million units, up 5% year-on-year, creating a divergence between consumption and production, with consumption plunging while production grew extremely strongly. In October, trucks totaled 290,000 units, down 6% year-on-year. In 2026, major truck manufacturers diverged relatively noticeably, with leading truck makers performing relatively strongly. Manufacturers such as Maxus and JAC Motors surged year-on-year versus October last year, while Shaanxi Automobile and others performed relatively poorly. Commercial vehicle subsidies had a prominent effect, heavy trucks surged in 2026, and pure electric heavy trucks performed very strongly, with relatively strong growth at Foton, Sinotruk, FAW, and Shaanxi Automobile, while the industry landscape remained relatively stable.
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