Zhongtai Securities: High-End EV Growth Potential Favors Ninebot Limited (689009.SH) and Others

Stock News2025-12-25

Zhongtai Securities released a research report highlighting the electric vehicle (EV) industry's dual-track growth: mass-market brands focus on trends, while premium brands emphasize growth realization. The report projects that mass-market brands may see easing base pressure by Q2 2026, whereas premium brands are expected to sustain growth throughout the year. With current undervaluation in the EV sector, the firm recommends monitoring YADEA (01585), AIMA Technology (603529.SH), and Ninebot Limited (689009.SH). Key insights include:

1. **Two-Wheeler Market Evolution**: The industry’s upgrade cycle has shifted from rural penetration to urban adoption, transitioning from utilitarian products to premium offerings. Historical phases include rapid expansion (2005–2013), consolidation (2014–2018), and regulatory-driven replacement demand (2019–2024) under new standards. Post-listing of leaders like YADEA and AIMA, competition pivoted from price wars to profit-driven product upgrades. Internet-native brands such as Ninebot entered the market, and the updated 2024H2 standards are expected to trigger industry consolidation.

2. **Premium Segment Growth Potential**: While urban electric two-wheeler penetration is high, disparities persist among "new first-tier" cities, with ownership rates ranging from single digits to 70+ per 100 residents. Assuming similar consumption levels and road conditions, the premium segment holds significant untapped potential. At a 45% total penetration rate for top-tier cities and a 5-year replacement cycle, annual premium sales could reach ~6.6 million units. Ninebot’s projected sales of 2.6/4.2 million in 2024/2025 suggest ample room for expansion.

3. **Ninebot’s Premium Strategy**: The brand’s success stems from (1) prioritizing product design, user experience, and smart features, and (2) balancing brand equity with channel development—yielding premium pricing and competitive barriers. This approach has propelled Ninebot into a high-growth phase of profitability and distribution scaling.

4. **Regulatory Impact**: The updated standards may initially homogenize brands but will ultimately test scalability and product strength. Mass-market leaders like YADEA and AIMA could benefit from economies of scale, while premium players like Ninebot must demonstrate sustained innovation.

**Risks**: Data inaccuracies, sales shortfalls, trade uncertainties, and heightened competition.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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