Tesla Motors has suddenly signaled a bearish outlook. According to the latest Wall Street projections, Tesla is expected to deliver approximately 440,900 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, an 11% year-over-year decrease, signaling a potential second consecutive annual decline in deliveries. Furthermore, data compiled by Bloomberg indicates that Wall Street analysts have significantly revised their delivery forecast for Tesla in 2026, lowering it from over 3 million vehicles to around 1.8 million.
In a separate major development, SpaceX, also led by Elon Musk, announced a significant maneuver. On January 2nd, Beijing time, SpaceX declared its plan to lower the orbital altitude of all its satellites currently operating at approximately 550 kilometers down to about 480 kilometers by 2026, involving roughly 4,400 satellites.
A Significant Downgrade On January 2nd, Eastern Time, Tesla is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 delivery figures. Data from Bloomberg suggests an anticipated delivery of around 440,900 vehicles for Q4, marking an 11% decline compared to the same period last year. This indicates that Tesla's sales volume for the second half of 2025 will be lower than that of the latter half of 2024.
Another set of data, aggregating analyst forecasts released by Tesla itself, presents an even more pessimistic sales outlook. It anticipates Tesla's Q4 2025 deliveries to be 422,850 vehicles, representing a 15% year-over-year drop.
Regarding the full-year 2025 delivery estimate, this data projects a total of 1.6408 million vehicles, a decrease of nearly 8% compared to the 1.789 million vehicles delivered in 2024.
Should these predictions materialize, Tesla would face its second consecutive year of declining annual deliveries, with the rate of decline significantly widening. In 2024, Tesla delivered a total of 1.7892 million vehicles, a slight decrease of 1.07% year-over-year, which was the company's first annual delivery decline in over a decade.
In response, Tesla explicitly stated that it "does not endorse any of the information, recommendations, or conclusions from the analysts," merely presenting the aggregated data objectively.
Analysis points to the expiration of the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit in September as a primary reason for Tesla's weak Q4 2025 sales. This policy had previously offered buyers up to $7,500 in incentives. A surge in purchases ahead of the credit deadline boosted third-quarter sales but subsequently depleted demand for the fourth quarter.
Additionally, according to Bloomberg-compiled data, Wall Street analysts' delivery expectations for Tesla in 2026 have been sharply reduced from over 3 million vehicles to approximately 1.8 million.
Some analysts note that investors are currently focusing on Tesla's growth potential over the next 5 to 15 years, somewhat overlooking short-term financial fluctuations. However, this strategy is being tested as headwinds emerge, including the cancellation of the U.S. federal EV tax credit, intensifying global market competition, and regulatory approval hurdles in Europe.
In terms of stock performance, as of the close on December 31, 2025, Tesla's stock price had fallen for the sixth consecutive trading day, dropping over 1% to $449.72 per share. This "six-day losing streak" resulted in a cumulative pullback of approximately 8% for the period, although the stock still managed an overall annual gain of about 11%. Tesla's current price-to-earnings ratio remains near 300 times, placing significant pressure on the company to deliver on its autonomous driving promises in a timely and scalable manner.
SpaceX's Sudden Announcement On January 2nd, Beijing time, SpaceX announced it would lower the orbital altitude of thousands of its Starlink satellites to reduce collision risks.
Michael Nichols, Vice President of Starlink Engineering, stated that the company is "initiating a major constellation reconfiguration plan" to lower all satellites currently operating at approximately 550 kilometers (342 miles) to an orbit of about 480 kilometers (298 miles). This move aims to relocate the satellites to a less congested orbital shell, thereby lowering collision risks. It also ensures that satellites can deorbit and burn up in the atmosphere more quickly in the event of an anomaly or failure, reducing space debris generation.
Nichols revealed that around 4,400 Starlink satellites are scheduled to participate in this orbital altitude reduction within the year.
Beyond creating a relatively safer and more controlled operational environment, Nichols indicated that this adjustment is closely linked to the solar activity cycle. Solar activity follows an approximately 11-year cycle, and its intensity directly affects the density of Earth's upper atmosphere. The next solar minimum is predicted for early 2030. As it approaches, the density of the upper atmosphere will decrease, meaning satellites would experience a longer natural orbital decay time at the same altitude. By lowering the orbital altitude, the decay time—which could otherwise extend beyond four years during the solar minimum—can be shortened to just a few months, increasing the orbital decay rate by over 80%.
Furthermore, lowering the satellite altitude could theoretically reduce latency. However, since not all latency originates from satellite distance, the improvement from a 70-kilometer altitude change is expected to be very limited.
SpaceX previously confirmed an anomaly with one of its Starlink satellites, potentially caused by an internal small explosion leading to a leak in the propellant tank. This caused the satellite's semi-major axis to decay rapidly by about 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) and release debris.
Overall data indicates that Low Earth Orbit is becoming unprecedentedly crowded. In 2025 alone, SpaceX deployed over 3,000 satellites through 121 launch missions, averaging nearly one new satellite launch every three days. According to a 2024 World Economic Forum report, the number of satellites in low Earth orbit is projected to grow by 190% over the next decade.
According to CCTV International, during a UN Security Council Arria-formula meeting on Low Earth Orbit satellite issues on December 29th local time, the Chinese representative stated that the unchecked expansion of commercial satellite constellations by individual countries, lacking effective regulation, poses significant security challenges. Citing the Starlink project under Musk's company as an example, the representative noted that Starlink has over 10,000 satellites in orbit, which have twice necessitated emergency collision avoidance maneuvers by the Chinese space station. Recently, the disintegration of one satellite generated over 100 pieces of debris, seriously threatening spacecraft from developing countries that lack orbit control capabilities.
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