On May 11, last Friday, the US April non-farm payroll report presented a complex picture of "superficial resilience with underlying concerns." Previously, Citi's forecast was significantly below the market consensus, predicting negative growth and a rise in the unemployment rate. However, the actual data showed that US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, lower than the revised 185,000 in March but higher than the market expectation of 62,000, marking the first consecutive two-month growth in nearly a year. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, unchanged from the previous month and in line with market expectations. This data, which exceeded pessimistic expectations but fell short of previous performance, has led to increased caution in the market regarding Federal Reserve policy expectations. Following the release, the probability of a rate hike decreased to 18%, putting pressure on the US dollar but not completely eliminating bullish sentiment. This provided moderate support for gold while also limiting its upside potential.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart recorded a bearish inverted hammer candlestick with a long upper shadow, indicating significant selling pressure above and a slowdown in short-term upward momentum. Although the 5-day and 10-day moving averages formed a golden cross, their support is limited. The RSI indicator shows a bearish divergence, suggesting heightened risks of a short-term correction. On the 4-hour chart, after forming a double-bottom reversal pattern, prices retreated from a rally yesterday, entering a consolidation phase. Key support to watch is the neckline conversion level at $4,660-$4,680 per ounce, which is also a crucial Fibonacci retracement level. The 1-hour chart shows consolidation at high levels, with the MACD indicator's bullish momentum weakening, indicating a clear range-bound pattern. For trading strategies, short-term operations should focus on range trading. A rebound to $4,740-$4,750 per ounce could be an opportunity for light short positions. Core support lies in the $4,695-$4,700 range, which is a critical area for short-term bullish-bearish battles and the bottom of the previous consolidation range. This level has effectively absorbed selling pressure, repeatedly supporting gold prices to halt declines and rebound, preventing further downside. Particular attention should be paid to the $4,680 support level. If this level is breached, it could open the door for further correction.
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