Guosen Securities released a research report stating that CALB (03931) has achieved rapid growth in energy storage battery shipments and accelerated domestic and international development through partnerships with leading clients. The company has deepened its presence in power storage, commercial and industrial storage, and residential storage, offering a comprehensive product portfolio to meet diverse customer needs. The diversification and globalization of its power battery clientele continue to bolster profitability. The firm adjusted its earnings forecast while maintaining an "Outperform" rating. Key points from Guosen Securities are as follows:
According to SNE Research data, CALB's global market share in power batteries reached 4.7% from January to October 2025, showing steady year-on-year growth. In October alone, its installed capacity surpassed LG Energy Solution, securing a spot among the top three globally for the first time.
**Power Battery Business: Rapid Growth with Global and Diversified Expansion** CALB has expanded its domestic and international customer base, driving significant growth in shipments and market share. The brokerage estimates the company's power battery shipments could approach 70GWh in 2025, with a potential year-on-year increase exceeding 50%. In the passenger vehicle segment, CALB has strengthened collaborations with XPeng, Leapmotor, GAC Group, and Changan, while securing orders from leading overseas automakers, accelerating its global footprint. In the commercial vehicle sector, it serves clients such as Geely, Chery, and Ruichi, with successful overseas deliveries of electric bus and heavy-duty truck batteries.
**Energy Storage Battery: Strong Growth with Leading Partnerships** As one of the earliest companies to mass-produce 314Ah battery cells, CALB continues to optimize its product lineup, launching upgraded versions including 314Ah Gen 2, 392Ah, 588Ah, and 684Ah cells to meet varied market demands. The company has deepened cooperation with clients like Sungrow and CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, steadily increasing its market share. Overseas, CALB has delivered energy storage batteries in regions such as Saudi Arabia and Europe while actively engaging with local customers. Shipments are projected to reach around 45GWh in 2025, up over 75% year-on-year. With accelerating overseas projects and client acquisition, profitability in this segment is expected to improve further.
**Investment Recommendation** Considering fluctuations in shipment structures across different ownership bases and their impact on net profit attributable to shareholders, Guosen Securities revised its 2025 earnings forecast downward. However, factoring in strong demand for energy storage and commercial vehicles, along with successful overseas client expansion, the brokerage raised its 2026–2027 forecasts. CALB’s estimated net profit for 2025–2027 is now RMB 1.215 billion, RMB 2.675 billion, and RMB 3.904 billion (previously RMB 1.376 billion, RMB 2.118 billion, and RMB 3.028 billion), representing year-on-year growth of +106%, +120%, and +46%, respectively. EPS is projected at RMB 0.69, RMB 1.51, and RMB 2.20, with dynamic P/E ratios of 34.9x, 15.8x, and 10.8x. The "Outperform" rating is maintained.
**Risk Factors**: Lower-than-expected NEV sales; subdued energy storage demand; intensifying industry competition; significant raw material price volatility; trade protectionism and disputes; delays in overseas capacity construction.
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