In the first half of 2026, the precious metals market experienced significant volatility, swinging from historic highs to a deep correction. The price of London gold fell from a peak near $5,600 per ounce at the end of January to around $4,000, a fluctuation exceeding $1,600 over six months. The primary driver of this movement has been a sharp reversal in expectations for Federal Reserve policy. However, after undergoing an extreme stress test, the market is likely approaching an inflection point. Current gold prices have already partially priced in the Fed's hawkish stance, leaving limited room for further valuation downside. Furthermore, considering that trading on rate hike expectations has become quite crowded, precious metals may be poised for a corrective rebound following the deep pullback. For gold equities, the present moment may represent the most strategic time for investment, particularly for companies with low-cost resource reserves and imminent production capacity increases. These firms are positioned to demonstrate greater earnings leverage, driven by both a potential gold price recovery and their own production growth. Taking GT GOLD (08299), which recently disclosed its annual results, as an example: at a critical juncture when market views on gold's direction are divided, this new Hong Kong-listed gold player delivered a set of annual figures that withstand scrutiny. More importantly, the company's newly acquired Ningshan Gold Mine is set to commence trial operations this month, and the technical upgrade at the Taizhou Mining Mine is entering its final stages. GT GOLD's production growth momentum is transitioning from reliance on a "single mine" to a "multi-point expansion" model, enhancing the certainty and potential magnitude of its future earnings delivery.
Core Profitability Surges, Signaling High-Quality Fulfillment of Growth Expectations
According to the annual results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, disclosed by GT GOLD, revenue for FY2026 surged 49.6% year-on-year to HK$1.966 billion, representing a leap in scale. Breaking down the business segments, both the mining and refining operations saw substantial growth during the period. Mining revenue increased by 51.4% year-on-year to HK$284 million, while refining revenue grew 49.3% to HK$1.682 billion. Concurrently, the comprehensive optimization of GT GOLD's profit metrics warrants attention. During the reporting period, the company's gross profit rose from HK$104 million to HK$232 million, a significant increase of 123.3%. The corresponding gross margin was 11.8%, a substantial improvement from 7.9% in the same period last year, indicating a marked enhancement in profitability. For the same period, GT GOLD's net profit was HK$144 million, a year-on-year increase of 52%; attributable net profit to owners reached HK$94.878 million, up 42.6%. It is noteworthy that the previous fiscal year's profit for GT GOLD included a substantial amount of other income. Excluding this non-recurring item, calculations suggest that the attributable profit from core operations—gold mining, processing, and smelting—for the last fiscal year was approximately in the range of HK$35 million to HK$40 million. Using this as a base to recalculate the change in GT GOLD's FY2026 attributable net profit, the corresponding growth in core operating profit would comfortably exceed 135%. In other words, focusing solely on the reported figures would lead to a significant underestimation of the company's true earnings potential.
New Capacity Additions Strengthen Long-Cycle Growth Momentum
In the first half of the year, as market divergence over gold price trends intensified, gold stocks generally experienced substantial corrections. However, considering that the trend of global central banks increasing their gold reserves has not fundamentally shifted, and supported by long-term logic, it remains highly probable that gold prices will maintain a strong trajectory from a long-cycle perspective. Based on this overarching view, the short-term oversold condition of gold equities presents an excellent entry opportunity for secondary market investors. For GT GOLD, while high gold prices in the future constitute a favorable external condition, the company's own robust internal growth momentum cannot be overlooked. Regarding production capacity, on the existing asset front, the technical upgrade at Taizhou Mining is in its final stages. The reconstruction project for the 500-ton-per-day processing plant is targeted for completion next month, with the new 1,000-ton-per-day plant scheduled for completion by the end of this year. Upon full completion of the upgrades and government acceptance, Taizhou Mining's gold mining and processing capacity will see a systematic improvement. On the incremental front, the acquisition of the Ningshan Gold Mine was formally completed on June 29. The two processing plants have a combined design capacity of 1,500 tons per day, with potential capacity reaching 2,000 tons per day. Although there will be ramp-up periods following the completion of upgrades and the commencement of trial operations for the acquired assets, sustained and significant growth is anticipated. The company's production profile will complete its transition from a "single mine" to a "multi-point expansion" model.
Beyond capacity expansion, GT GOLD's technological initiatives are also noteworthy. Currently, a subsidiary of GT GOLD is actively promoting the application of AI in gold and non-ferrous metal mining. It has previously launched a "Gold Exploration AI Agent" specifically designed for gold geological exploration. This platform integrates large language models, knowledge graphs, and vector databases, and has undergone pilot testing using actual drilling and exploration data. It is capable of rapidly generating 3D ore body models from field data. Since announcing its entry into AI mining R&D in 2025, the AI exploration technology has progressed rapidly in less than a year, moving beyond theoretical development to begin integration with actual gold exploration projects, entering the practical validation stage. This holds the potential to reduce exploration costs and improve prospecting efficiency in the medium to long term, providing GT GOLD with a differentiated competitive edge at the technological level for resource expansion. GT GOLD's AI mining technology has made substantive progress in areas such as intelligent parsing of multi-format data, integrated reasoning with knowledge graphs and vector libraries, causal reasoning and decision support driven by large models, and industry-specific customization. It is believed that the company has achieved a leading position in the vertical niche of gold exploration. Reading between the lines, given GT GOLD's next step of planning to commercialize this AI mining model, it is expected to bring even more exciting positive impacts.
Investment Perspective: A Convergence of Positive Catalysts
It is believed that GT GOLD is currently at an intersection of multiple positive factors. The capacity release from the Taizhou upgrades and the consolidation of the Ningshan Gold Mine will drive a fundamental shift from dependence on a "single mine" to a "multi-point expansion" model. Meanwhile, the implementation of AI exploration technology provides a differentiated competitive advantage for the company's resource expansion over the medium to long term. Looking ahead, should gold prices re-enter a strong upward trajectory, the combined effect of production growth and price appreciation would directly translate into earnings leverage significantly exceeding the industry average. At a time when trading on rate hike expectations is crowded and a window for gold price recovery is drawing nearer, GT GOLD, which possesses both quality internal growth and efficient external expansion, is unlikely to remain in its current undervalued state for long.
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