Abstract
Shopify will publish its fourth-quarter results on February 11, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles the latest quarter’s performance and consensus-style forecasts to assess revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS alongside developments in its core Merchant Solutions and Subscription Solutions businesses.Market Forecast
Based on the latest compiled forecasts, Shopify’s current quarter revenue is estimated at $3.59 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 31.54%; forecast EBIT is $0.69 billion with an estimated year-over-year growth of 24.46%, and forecast adjusted EPS is $0.51 with estimated year-over-year growth of 18.33%. Forecasted segment-level margin detail is limited, though the company’s recent trajectory suggests a high-40s gross margin profile and a mid-to-high single-digit net profit margin, with adjusted EPS growth outpacing GAAP measures on operating leverage.The main business highlight centers on Merchant Solutions, which continues to drive the majority of revenue through payments, transaction services, and related merchant take rates. The most promising segment remains Merchant Solutions with revenue scale that materially exceeds Subscription Solutions; in the prior quarter it delivered $2.15 billion, out of total revenue of $2.84 billion, indicating robust traction and favorable year-over-year expansion.
Last Quarter Review
In the last reported quarter, Shopify generated revenue of $2.84 billion, a gross profit margin of 48.91%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.26 billion, a net profit margin of 9.28%, and adjusted EPS of $0.34; year-over-year revenue growth registered at 31.55%, and adjusted EPS contracted by 2.86% year over year.A key financial highlight was improved operating performance versus internal expectations, with EBIT of $0.47 billion surpassing projections. Main business composition showed Merchant Solutions revenue of $2.15 billion and Subscription Solutions revenue of $0.70 billion, underscoring the outsized scale and growth contribution from transaction-driven services.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Merchant Solutions momentum and transaction economics
Merchant Solutions remains the engine of revenue expansion as gross merchandise volume and payment penetration drive take-rate uplift. With the forecast indicating total revenue of $3.59 billion, the implied sequential acceleration suggests continued momentum from payments adoption and higher attach of checkout, capital, and fulfillment-adjacent services. The gross margin profile for Merchant Solutions is typically lower than Subscription Solutions due to payments mix, but operating leverage can emerge through scale effects and optimized cost-to-serve across gateways and risk management. The magnitude of year-over-year revenue growth indicates that Shopify Payments penetration likely increased, which enhances net revenue capture per dollar of GMV and supports EBIT growth despite a mix shift toward lower-gross-margin streams. Investors will watch transaction margin resilience relative to card mix and regional volumes; if payment authorization rates and fraud costs remain contained, blended unit economics may see incremental improvement.Subscription Solutions stability and ARPU trajectory
Subscription Solutions continues to provide a predictable recurring base that supports the consolidated margin profile. The prior quarter’s $0.70 billion contribution underscores pricing power and the breadth of plans that span entrepreneurs to enterprise users via Shopify Plus. In this quarter, management’s execution on upgrades, retention, and monetization of add-ons such as premium themes and channels could sustain mid-teens or better growth within the segment, which in turn buttresses gross margin given Subscription’s structurally higher margin than Merchant Solutions. Any expansion in high-tier subscriptions and enterprise conversions would contribute positively to gross margin and EBIT, offsetting mix headwinds from Merchant Solutions. The company’s comments on churn levels, new store creation, and Plus win rates will be crucial for extrapolating annualized recurring revenue growth and medium-term margin trajectories.Key stock price drivers: gross margin mix, operating leverage, and EPS conversion
The central swing factor for this quarter is the gross margin outcome relative to the expected high-40s range. A larger-than-anticipated mix shift to Merchant Solutions could cap gross margin expansion, yet operating leverage on sales and marketing and R&D lines may still drive EBIT growth to the forecasted $0.69 billion. Investors will focus on whether adjusted EPS of $0.51 reflects sustainably improving conversion of gross profit to earnings given scale efficiencies in infrastructure and support. Another important factor is the net profit margin relative to the prior quarter’s 9.28%; a steady or improving net margin would support the narrative of disciplined cost control and improving monetization across both segments. Finally, any commentary on capital intensity, particularly with respect to logistics partnerships and technology investments, will influence the market’s interpretation of medium-term free cash flow leverage and the durability of EPS growth.Analyst Opinions
Across available previews, the tone is broadly constructive, with a majority of analysts leaning bullish on Shopify’s near-term setup due to accelerating transaction revenue, healthy subscription trends, and improving operating leverage. Institutions highlighting upside potential cite the combination of strong holiday-period GMV flow-through into Merchant Solutions and stable subscription demand, implying that consensus revenue growth of 31.54% and adjusted EPS of $0.51 are achievable with room for modest upside if gross margins hold in the high-40s and operating expenses grow slower than revenue. Analysts emphasizing the bull case also point to EBIT leverage toward $0.69 billion, viewing it as consistent with scale efficiencies and disciplined spending.The constructive view centers on several themes. First, payments penetration is expected to climb further, which enhances take rates and supports top-line outperformance even if gross margin faces mix pressure. Second, subscription tiering dynamics, including adoption of enterprise-grade features, are seen as drivers for average revenue per user and gross margin stability. Third, improved operating efficiency in go-to-market and cloud infrastructure is anticipated to translate into higher EPS conversion, mitigating the impact of transaction-heavy revenue mix. While some caution persists around the sustainability of gross margin at a high-40s level and the sensitivity to macro discretionary demand, the prevailing consensus suggests that Shopify is positioned to deliver revenue and EBIT in line with, or modestly ahead of, forecasts for the current quarter.
Overall, the dominant analyst perspective anticipates a robust quarter supported by Merchant Solutions scale and steady subscription revenue, with particular attention on the realized gross margin and the cadence of operating expense growth as key validation points for adjusted EPS delivery.
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