As Tesla (TSLA.US) prepares to disclose its fourth-quarter 2025 delivery figures, Wall Street's attention extends beyond just "how many cars were sold." For investors, the more critical focal point is whether Tesla's robotaxi business is showing key progress. Relevant updates are expected to be announced alongside the delivery data on January 2nd.
The market has already braced itself for a decline in deliveries. A consensus estimate compiled by Tesla from 20 brokerages points to Q4 deliveries of approximately 422,900 vehicles; the FactSet consensus is around 440,000 vehicles, though this figure was closer to 460,000 just weeks ago, with recent expectations being revised down closer to 415,000.
For comparison, Tesla delivered approximately 497,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025 and about 496,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024. The pressure on delivery volumes is not accidental.
The U.S. federal government's elimination of the maximum $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit at the end of September directly increased purchase costs, while also creating a "buying spree" in the third quarter that pushed deliveries to a company record high (497,100 units). A subsequent Q4 pullback was therefore expected following the subsidy's expiration.
Regarding the stock price, recent short-term trends make the market's reaction to the delivery data harder to predict. As of Wednesday, Tesla's stock had fallen for six consecutive trading sessions; it closed the day at $449.72, down 1%.
Over the same period, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. This means Tesla ended the period with a "six-day losing streak," accumulating a pullback of about 8%, though it remains up approximately 11% for the full year.
Some investors believe the current stock price already reflects a degree of pessimism. Gary Black, co-founder of The Future Fund, stated that as long as deliveries are around 415,000 units, the stock price could potentially stabilize; what the market is truly focused on is whether the Austin robotaxi service can remove human safety monitors by year-end and achieve fully autonomous operation.
In June of this year, Tesla launched a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, which included a front-seat safety monitor. If, as CEO Elon Musk recently hinted, the monitors are removed first, it would be seen as a major milestone for the commercialization of autonomous driving; subsequently, expansion to more cities would become the next critical step.
Currently, Tesla is also testing robotaxis in San Francisco, but these still operate with a front-seat safety monitor. The robotaxi business is considered central to Tesla's valuation.
Despite declining auto sales, Tesla's stock is still up about 13% year-to-date. The company expects 2025 vehicle sales to be under 1.7 million units, marking a second consecutive year of decline, yet its approximately $1.6 trillion market capitalization and a forward P/E ratio of around 220x for 2026 largely stem from market expectations for its AI applications, particularly its autonomous taxi network.
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