Special Topic: The 8th Golden Qilin Best Securities Analyst Selection 2026. For stock trading, follow the Golden Qilin analyst research reports 鈥?authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, helping you uncover potential thematic opportunities!
Editor's Note: As an important unit of the SINA Corp Finance Golden Qilin Analyst Selection dedicated to discovering emerging research talent, "Future Star" has recorded the growth footsteps of batches of outstanding young analysts since its establishment. They were once rising research newcomers on the list. When we lay out the career trajectories of past "Future Stars" one by one, what we see is a clear growth curve from newcomer to backbone, from single-point breakthrough to leading the team 鈥?this beam of "starlight" not only illuminates the road traveled but also points toward the vast sea of stars that lies ahead for the industry. The 8th SINA Corp Finance Golden Qilin Analyst Selection has specially launched the "Starlight Illuminates the Road Traveled" series of character interviews, revisiting past "Future Stars" and recording their research growth and industry reflections after winning awards. In this issue, we approach Lin Chengwei, the Seventh Golden Qilin Best Analyst "Future Star" and Chief Macro Analyst at Zheshang Securities, looking back at his research trajectory from nomination to growth.
Character Introduction: The guest for this issue is Lin Chengwei, the Seventh Golden Qilin Best Analyst "Future Star" and Chief Macro Analyst at Zheshang Securities. Lin Chengwei possesses a dual background in government institutions and market research. From 2016 to 2020, he worked at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, conducting long-term research on overseas economic policies and cross-border capital flows. After joining Zheshang Securities Research Institute in 2020, he started with a focus on overseas macro research and gradually expanded to full-spectrum macro research. In 2024, he formally assumed the role of Chief Macro Analyst, growing from a young research backbone to a team leader. Next, let us listen to his growth reflections after being named a "Future Star."
SINA Corp Finance: Please review your feelings when you were first recognized by the industry as a "Future Star"; what did this list mean to you at that time?
Lin Chengwei: Being recognized by the industry as a "Future Star" for the first time, I felt extremely honored. To me, this list is both an affirmation of my past research work and a spur for future research work. After being seen and known by more investors, there is an even greater need to refine research and create value for investors. While being recognized and rejoicing in it, I require myself to always maintain rigor and enthusiasm for research, forming valuable independent judgments in the constantly changing market.
SINA Corp Finance: In your research framework, what is the most irreplaceable "cornerstone"?
Lin Chengwei: In the current era of dramatic geopolitical shifts, if I could choose only one cornerstone, I would choose "great power rivalry." We need to use this as a foundation to judge various macroeconomic and policy variables at home and abroad. In the past, macro research was more based on the demand-side perspective, analyzing the trajectory of economic operation from the cyclical patterns of the three growth drivers. However, against the backdrop of global order reshaping and China-US great power rivalry, more issues need to be rethought within a supply-side framework. Compared to the past, government decision-making in various countries is no longer simply based on the demand side but focuses more on supply-side industrial competitiveness and supply chain security, which has greatly changed the research framework for policy deduction, economic operation, and asset allocation. To this end, our team proposed a "four-tier development framework" in 2025 under the unprecedented changes of the century, which from top to bottom consists of China-US rivalry, social stability, structural transformation, and economic growth. This framework has also greatly optimized our prediction accuracy for various major variables during the research process. Over the past year, I have led the team in continuously conducting a medium-to-long-term thematic research series called "Grand Blueprint," hoping to start from changes in the global political and economic landscape, seek new clues beyond traditional analytical frameworks, and further land on industrial trends and large-scale asset allocation.
SINA Corp Finance: In an era where AI is accelerating the restructuring of research, where do you think young analysts' moats lie? What are the things that models cannot replace?
Lin Chengwei: AI is changing the way research is done, especially in data collection, policy tracking, or model calculation. AI is making work increasingly efficient. I believe that compared to AI, the future moat for young analysts lies in establishing effective forecasting frameworks. AI can help us analyze existing data more efficiently, but it lacks sufficient predictive capability. What matters more in macro research is making judgments about trends that have not yet fully manifested based on an understanding of economic laws, policy logic, and real-world constraints, and capturing the "core expectation gap" that affects asset prices. This is the direction that young analysts, including myself, need to refine during our growth process, and it is also where our moat lies compared to AI.
SINA Corp Finance: Can you give an example of you "running ahead of the market" 鈥?you saw a direction earlier than the market. What did you rely on?
Lin Chengwei: A relatively typical example is our research this year on aging and interest rates. The market previously understood aging more from the demand side, believing that population aging would bring about slower demand, lower inflation, and lower interest rates. In "Is Aging an Inflationary or Deflationary Force?" we proposed that understanding the impact of aging requires considering both supply and demand sides simultaneously. If supply contracts faster than demand slows during the aging process, aging may transform from a traditionally perceived deflationary force into an inflationary force and push long-term interest rates upward. As demographic structural changes continue to manifest in developed economies such as the United States, Europe, and Japan, the market needs to re-examine the impact of aging on long-term interest rates. In particular, Japan, as the world's most deeply aging developed economy, may be the first to face challenges of rising inflation and interest rates. Even if future geopolitical conflicts ease and oil prices fall from highs, Japan's inflation and interest rates may still stubbornly continue to climb. At present, this research conclusion is being continuously validated. The sustained upward magnitude of Japanese government bond yields is exceeding previous market consensus expectations, and it may continue to play out in the future, with far-reaching impacts on global liquidity and large-scale asset classes. This is also why we emphasized the importance of a macro research framework earlier. Under the unprecedented changes of the century, macro analysts need to have critical thinking. Frameworks that have stood the test of time may not necessarily be correct, and frameworks that are currently correct may also be further reshaped in the future. We need to keep learning, keep innovating, and keep refining.
SINA Corp Finance: In your view, what is the true value of a high-quality selection (such as the Golden Qilin "Future Star") for a young researcher 鈥?is it a signal, a resource, or an opportunity to "be seen"?
Lin Chengwei: I think all of these aspects have value, but the most important thing is that after young researchers are "seen," they gain the opportunity for broader exchanges with the industry and to receive market feedback. Research work often requires long-term accumulation. Researchers need to have their own thinking and also need to understand the core concerns of the market. A high-quality selection can allow different research viewpoints to receive more discussion and also give young researchers the opportunity to test whether their research truly responds to market needs. For me, receiving recognition is only a阶段性 milestone. The real test lies in whether I can continue to produce valuable research afterward, not disappointing the institutional investors' trust behind this award, and allowing stage-by-stage recognition to gradually settle into professional capabilities that can withstand market scrutiny.
SINA Corp Finance: Which direction are you most bullish on in the next 2-3 years? What is the reason?
Lin Chengwei: In the next two to three years, I am relatively bullish on two directions: technology growth and dividend assets. From the perspective of the global macro environment, the potential growth rate of developed economies is currently gradually slowing. Problems such as insufficient aggregate demand and uneven income distribution are further intensifying social and political contradictions, and the spillover of internal contradictions is also pushing global geopolitical rivalry to continue heating up. Against this backdrop, artificial intelligence is not only a technological revolution but also an important path to solving the deep-seated problems of the current global economy: first, using AI to raise the potential economic growth rate and expand the denominator to alleviate sovereign debt pressure; second, using robots to address the labor supply constraints brought by population aging; third, using technological innovation to make the global economic "pie" bigger and ease distribution conflicts among different countries. Therefore, we believe AI is an inevitable industrial path for the development of human society and will also become the core positioning battle in China-US great power rivalry. Future policy resources will continue to tilt toward it, and endogenous innovation will also flow continuously, bringing far-reaching investment opportunities. On the other hand, we continue to be bullish on China's central state-owned enterprise dividend assets. In an environment of global geopolitical turbulence, the importance of safe assets is rising. Against this backdrop, China's high-dividend central state-owned enterprises, with stable cash flows and relatively high strategic real asset attributes, are expected to become an important choice for global long-term funds seeking safe assets, and their long-term allocation value deserves to be re-understood. Therefore, from the perspective of asset allocation, I prefer a barbell strategy of technology growth plus dividend assets, with one end capturing the industrial trends and growth opportunities brought by AI, and the other end using central state-owned enterprise dividend assets to balance safety attributes and cash flow returns. Together, the two constitute important directions for us to grasp future macro trends and medium-to-long-term asset allocation opportunities.
SINA Corp Statement: This message is reprinted from a SINA Corp partner media outlet. SINA Corp publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean it agrees with or confirms its views or descriptions. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on this do so at their own risk.
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