The global precious metals market is witnessing a historic rally as 2025 draws to a close.
On Monday, December 22, during early Asian trading hours, spot gold accelerated its upward trajectory, surpassing $4,384 per ounce to hit a fresh all-time high since October, marking a year-to-date gain of over 65%. Silver and platinum prices also soared to record levels, with silver emerging as the standout performer with an astonishing 126% surge, followed closely by platinum, which skyrocketed 116%.
**Gold, Silver, and Platinum All Hit New Peaks** Spot gold broke above its previous high of $4,381.4 per ounce (set on October 20) to reach a new record. As of the latest update, it traded at $4,390.96 per ounce, up more than 1%. Year-to-date, gold has surged over 65%.
Spot silver breached the $69-per-ounce threshold, setting a new historic high with an intraday gain exceeding 3%. The Shanghai silver futures contract surged over 5%, surpassing 16,000 yuan per kilogram to extend its record-breaking rally, accumulating a year-to-date increase of over 114%.
Spot platinum climbed more than 3% to $2,002.3 per ounce, crossing the $2,000 mark for the first time since 2008 and posting a year-to-date rise of over 120%. Meanwhile, palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit-up of 7%, reaching 508.45 yuan per gram.
LME copper prices also soared to an all-time high, nearing $12,000 per ton.
**Gold and Silver Stocks Rally in Hong Kong and A-Shares** Gold and silver stocks in both Hong Kong and mainland China markets gained strength. Among A-shares, Xiaocheng Technology rose over 8%, Hunan Silver advanced more than 7%, while Western Gold and Zhongjin Gold followed suit. In Hong Kong, Lingbao Gold jumped over 7%, International Gold Group climbed more than 6%, and Shandong Gold and Datang Gold also posted gains.
**What’s Driving the Rally?** The surge in precious metals is fueled by multiple macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.
Macroeconomic data from the U.S. last week pointed to rising labor market risks and unexpectedly subdued inflation. Fed Vice Chair Christopher Waller struck a dovish tone, suggesting the central bank still has room for 50–100 basis points of rate cuts and emphasizing a "steady" pace of easing. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain cautiously optimistic.
CITIC Securities noted that November’s cooler-than-expected U.S. CPI data led markets to revise upward their expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, boosting gold, silver, platinum, and palladium prices. Industrial metals like tin, copper, and aluminum also performed strongly. Ample liquidity and supply constraints are pushing commodity prices to new highs. Additionally, growing geopolitical emphasis on securing critical raw materials—even through tariffs—has exacerbated regional supply gaps, further driving prices upward.
In Japan, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, though Governor Kazuo Ueda offered no clear guidance on future tightening. With Japan grappling with high inflation and a weak yen, markets anticipate 1–2 more rate hikes in 2026.
Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, the U.S. and Venezuela, and Thailand and Cambodia, have spurred safe-haven demand for precious metals, reinforcing gold’s status as a defensive asset.
Meanwhile, global central banks are accelerating their "de-dollarization" efforts, with net gold purchases reaching 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025. The People’s Bank of China has added to its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, providing long-term support for prices.
**Gold Could Reach $4,900 in 2026** Gold prices are consolidating near record highs, with bullish sentiment intact. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold could climb to $4,900 per ounce in 2026.
Guotai Junan Securities predicts that while gold’s upward trend will persist in 2026, its pace may moderate as geopolitical risks (e.g., U.S.-China tensions, Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and Fed leadership changes) stabilize. The firm sees gold peaking around $4,700 per ounce, with strong support at $4,100–$4,200. Fiscal and monetary expansion will remain tailwinds, though their impact may be muted. Long-term structural tensions, particularly U.S. efforts to maintain dollar dominance, warrant attention.
For silver, Guotai Junan highlights its potential as a high-conviction trade in 2026, citing three key drivers: 1. Persistent demand for precious metals as a hedge amid loose monetary policy. 2. Structural supply tightness, which could amplify silver’s upside if risk sentiment improves. 3. A macro environment where liquidity-driven rallies favor assets less tied to economic fundamentals—silver fits this profile. The firm’s first price target for silver is $75 per ounce, with stronger momentum expected in the first half of 2026.
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