Abstract
Bunge will report fourth-quarter and full-year results on February 04, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview outlines consensus expectations for revenue, margins, net profit, and adjusted EPS, as well as segment highlights and predominant analyst views spanning recent institutional commentary through January 28, 2026.
Market Forecast
Consensus points to Bunge’s current quarter revenue at USD 22.68 billion, with adjusted EPS at USD 1.84 and EBIT at USD 0.63 billion; the year-over-year forecasts indicate revenue growth of 66.76%, adjusted EPS decline of 18.14%, and EBIT growth of 34.77%, while margin expectations imply a relatively mixed backdrop. The company’s core businesses—soybean processing and refined products, grains trading and milling, and softseed processing—are projected to benefit from solid crush margins and resilient demand; soybean processing remains the most promising with revenue of USD 10.86 billion and improving operational throughput on a year-over-year basis.
Last Quarter Review
Bunge’s previous quarter delivered revenue of USD 22.16 billion, a gross profit margin of 4.80%, net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 0.17 billion with a net profit margin of 0.75%, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.27, featuring a year-over-year revenue increase of 71.64% and EPS decline of 0.87%. One notable highlight was EBIT of USD 0.76 billion, which exceeded estimates by USD 0.13 billion and underscored better-than-anticipated crush economics and merchandising execution. The main business highlights included soybean processing and refining at USD 10.86 billion, grains trading and milling at USD 6.43 billion, and softseed processing and refining at USD 3.66 billion, reflecting a favorable mix shift driven by demand strength across major agricultural flows.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Soybean Processing and Refined Products
Soybean processing sits at the center of Bunge’s earnings power this quarter, supported by stable end-market demand for meal and oil and selectively favorable crush spreads. Operational discipline in hedging and origination is likely to anchor throughput as volatility persists in soybean supply chains. While the company posted a thin net profit margin last quarter, soybean processing’s scale provides leverage if spot margins hold near recent averages and if logistics costs remain contained. The spread between soybean meal and oil value versus bean costs is the swing factor; sustained export demand to Asia and North America would support volumes, though regional harvest dynamics may introduce variability. Analysts anticipate the segment’s contribution to remain robust on an absolute basis even if unit margins soften from peak levels.
Most Promising Business: Grains Trading and Milling
Grains trading and milling offers the largest incremental growth potential this quarter due to improved origination flows and continued merchandising strength across key corridors. Elevated global grain trade volumes and price volatility typically expand arbitrage opportunities, which can translate into higher unit profitability. If execution mirrors last quarter’s outperformance, the segment could deliver sequential steadiness with year-over-year resilience, backing the company’s consolidated revenue trajectory. Risk factors include potential dislocations in transportation networks and policy-induced trade disruptions, but diversified origination and destination markets should mitigate concentration risk. The segment’s operational footprint and risk management practices are expected to underpin consolidated margin stability.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The most important stock price drivers are margin quality and the EPS trajectory relative to the consensus decline, alongside visibility on cost discipline and any corporate developments. Consensus implies strong year-over-year revenue growth with softer per-share earnings, so investor focus will center on whether EBIT conversion is robust enough to offset EPS headwinds from mix, tax, or financing. Additionally, the company’s ability to sustain a gross margin near last quarter’s level of 4.80% will be interpreted as a sign of execution consistency within a volatile commodity backdrop. Commentary on capital allocation and balance sheet flexibility may influence valuation multiples, particularly if management highlights pathways to margin normalization as demand stabilizes and crush economics moderate.
Analyst Opinions
Recent institutional commentary collected through January 28, 2026 tilts cautiously bullish, with the majority of views highlighting resilient execution despite margin pressure and signaling potential upside if crush and merchandising conditions remain constructive. Several well-followed sell-side teams point to revenue momentum and EBIT durability into the fourth quarter, emphasizing that the company’s risk controls and diversified origination footprint provide insulation against acute commodity shocks. Where caution appears, it is typically centered on the forecasted year-over-year EPS decline of 18.14%, reflecting the difficulty of reproducing prior-period margin peaks and the thin net profit margin base. In aggregate, the dominant view expects revenue to meet or slightly exceed consensus with EBIT roughly in line, while EPS could track the midpoint of expectations given cost controls and a balanced segment mix.
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