In October, international gold prices experienced high-level volatility and a pullback, with gold-themed ETFs broadly suffering declines in net asset value, yet capital flows showed a "buy more as prices fall" pattern.
Wind data shows that in October, all 13 gold-themed ETFs recorded positive net inflows from subscriptions and redemptions, totaling approximately 5.6 billion yuan. Among them, Guotai Gold ETF led with a net inflow of 1.4 billion yuan, followed by Hua'an Gold ETF with 1.2 billion yuan, Huaxia Gold ETF with 900 million yuan, E Fund Gold ETF with 700 million yuan, and ICBC Credit Suisse Gold ETF with 500 million yuan.
Among equity-type products, Yongying CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF recorded a net inflow of 170 million yuan, and Huaxia CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF also saw a net inflow of 170 million yuan, while other products recorded net inflows ranging from 10 million yuan to 170 million yuan.
Both commodity-type ETFs and equity-type ETFs saw growth in net subscription and redemption inflows, reflecting that medium-to-long-term allocation demand for gold assets remains intact, and short-term price fluctuations have not shaken the pace of capital entry.
However, in terms of scale changes, all 13 products experienced varying degrees of decline. Among them, Hua'an Gold ETF, as the largest gold ETF, had a latest scale of 97.7 billion yuan, decreasing by 4.9 billion yuan during the month, the largest shrinkage; Bosera Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF decreased by 2.1 billion yuan and 1.5 billion yuan respectively; Yongying CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF decreased by 1.9 billion yuan.
Nevertheless, scale changes are not attributable to a single factor. Taking Hua'an Gold ETF as an example, although its scale declined during the month, its net subscription and redemption inflows reached 1.2 billion yuan, with NAV declines causing a scale reduction of 6.1 billion yuan, presenting a coexistence of capital inflows and scale shrinkage.
Furthermore, by product type, NAV declines in commodity-type gold ETFs caused a scale reduction of 14.6 billion yuan, while NAV declines in equity-type gold ETFs caused a scale reduction of 3.28 billion yuan; by underlying index, equity-type gold ETFs had smaller scale reductions, possibly because they track gold industry stock indices, which have relatively larger volatility.
Overall, NAV declines across the 13 gold ETFs were the main reason for the total scale shrinkage, causing most products' scales to "fall instead of rise."
Since October, international gold prices have generally shown a pullback trend, with the COMEX December gold contract having now fallen below the $4,000 per ounce mark, closing at $3,885 per ounce as of the time of writing.
Cong Shanshan, a precious metals researcher at Huishang Futures, stated that the core of this round of international gold price adjustment has shifted to "repricing of tightening expectations," and short-term gold prices are likely to maintain wide-range volatility, but there is still potential for upward movement in the medium to long term.
Analysts from the macro team at Minmetals Futures Research Center stated that the current international macro environment is tightening, exerting systematic pressure on precious metals prices. Short-term international gold prices may maintain a volatile pattern with limited upward space; in the medium to long term, the key to gold price movements lies in whether overseas inflation expectations can be validated.
Additionally, Sprott Physical Gold & Silver Trust (CEF) provides investors with exposure to physical precious metals, while Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) offers a similar investment vehicle focused solely on gold.
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