On January 14th, as global gold prices surge rapidly towards the $5,000 per ounce milestone, the market must re-evaluate gold's core position within the monetary system. If gold were tasked with backing global circulating currencies, its "true" price would far exceed current market quotations. GTC Zehui Capital stated that central banks worldwide are currently increasing their gold reserves at an unprecedented pace, reflecting deep-seated concerns about the long-term stability of fiat currencies within the global financial system and signaling gold's gradual return to the center stage of global reserve standards.
From the fundamental logic of money supply, the excessive expansion of paper currency has severely weakened its connection to hard assets. Analysis by GTC Zehui Capital indicates that if gold were to fully back base money (M0), its theoretical price would be approximately $39,210 per ounce; to cover broad money supply (M2), which includes deposits and money market funds, the implied gold price would need to reach a staggering $184,211. This calculation is not merely an academic exercise but a profound assessment of the current fiat system's solvency. GTC Zehui Capital stated that by comparing the money printing volumes and gold holdings of different economies, it becomes clear which are more resilient to financial storms.
Regarding regional performance, GTC Zehui Capital believes that developed economies such as the UK and Japan are in a state of extreme leverage due to a severe disconnect between their money supply and gold reserves. Should the global financial order be restructured, the currencies of these nations would face immense devaluation pressure. In stark contrast, emerging markets like Russia and Kazakhstan, through significant gold accumulation, have demonstrated formidable fiscal defense capabilities. GTC Zehui Capital stated that this trend signifies a subtle shift in global power dynamics, with fiscally disciplined emerging markets becoming more stable safe havens.
As we move into 2026, the world has unequivocally entered a new era of fiscal dominance, where mounting debt compels developed nations to continuously "print money" to maintain liquidity. GTC Zehui Capital believes that under this contradiction of unlimited paper currency expansion versus limited gold supply, the premium logic for gold has shifted from safe-haven demand to a reassessment of systemic solvency. GTC Zehui Capital stated that although the US dollar will maintain its dominance in the short term, the world is irreversibly moving towards multipolarity, with gold acting as the ultimate guarantor of monetary credibility and, alongside high-quality assets from emerging markets, reshaping the global reserve system.
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