Despite most commercial vessels remaining unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization, the number of ships transiting the strait with active signals has seen a moderate increase. Tracking data indicates that in the week ending Monday, the average daily two-way transit volume in the Strait of Hormuz rose to seven vessels, up from five the previous week. Although this figure remains significantly below normal levels, the increase suggests that a small, selective number of ships—primarily those linked to Iran or other non-hostile Asian partners—continue to pass through.
By permitting vessels from friendly nations to transit while restricting Western shipping, Iran's blockade has become a potent tool of economic warfare. The spillover effects are creating supply-side crises for countries that depend on exports from the Persian Gulf. Tensions in the region escalated early Tuesday when an Iranian drone struck a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker off the coast of Dubai. U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled that he may end military action against Iran even as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, indicating that the immediate restoration of maritime access is no longer a top priority for the United States.
Recent data show that from Monday to early Tuesday, at least six vessels were observed leaving the Persian Gulf, most of which were linked to Iran or allied entities. During the same period, only a small number of fuel tankers and bulk carriers entered the Persian Gulf. Additionally, a Greek-controlled oil tanker that had turned off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal in the Persian Gulf on March 10 reappeared on Monday in the eastern Indian Ocean near Sumatra, indicating it had successfully navigated through the Strait of Hormuz.
Electronic interference continues to disrupt ship tracking systems in the region. Furthermore, some vessels are turning off AIS transponders in high-risk waters, further reducing the timeliness and reliability of tracking data.
**Observed Transits** From Monday to early Tuesday, three container ships and three bulk carriers associated with Iran or allied entities transited the Strait of Hormuz out of the Persian Gulf.
**Note:** Because vessels may not transmit location data until they are far from the Strait of Hormuz, AIS signals covering a broader area—including the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, and the Red Sea—are aggregated to identify ships that may be exiting or entering the Persian Gulf. Once a potential transit vessel is identified, signal records are further analyzed to determine whether the movement is genuine or the result of spoofing, as electronic interference can falsify a ship’s actual position.
Some voyages may go undetected if a vessel’s transponder has not been reactivated. Oil tankers linked to Iran or allied entities often do not transmit signals after leaving the Persian Gulf until they reach the Strait of Malacca via Fujairah in the UAE approximately ten days later. Other vessels may employ similar strategies, meaning they might not appear on tracking screens for several days.
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