Daiwa has released a research report maintaining CHINA RES BEER (00291) as its preferred choice within the sector, citing high visibility for product mix and average selling price upgrades. This is primarily driven by the strong growth momentum of its premium brand Heineken and a higher-than-industry proportion of sales through at-home consumption channels. The firm reaffirmed its "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$36. CHINA RES BEER forecasted a 2025 net profit between 2.92 billion and 3.35 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 30% to 39%. Excluding an impairment of 2.79 billion to 2.97 billion yuan related to its baijiu business, the bank estimated the company's annual net profit would be between 5.89 billion and 6.14 billion yuan, with the midpoint being 5% higher than the bank's projection of 5.74 billion yuan. The report indicated that service consumption, predominantly in the dining sector, performed better than market expectations in February, which could lead to a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in on-premise beer channel consumption. Furthermore, the bank believes the industry will benefit from a low base effect starting in May due to "anti-waste" measures, setting the stage for potentially better-than-expected performance during the peak summer beer consumption season.
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