According to industry insights, Jiang Anqi, Chairman of TIANQI LITHIUM (09696), stated at the 2025 Second China International Lithium Industry Conference that global lithium demand is expected to reach 2 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2026, achieving a supply-demand balance. This growth is driven by rising demand for renewable energy integration, rapid electrification of commercial heavy-duty trucks, and increasing needs in energy storage and power battery sectors. With improving supply-demand dynamics, the lithium industry is set to break free from homogenized competition, offering greater development opportunities for enterprises.
Notably, Li Liangbin, Chairman of GANFENGLITHIUM (01772), previously predicted that lithium carbonate demand would grow by 30% in 2026, reaching 1.9 million metric tons, while supply capacity is expected to increase by approximately 250,000 metric tons, maintaining a balanced market. If demand growth exceeds 30%, potentially hitting 40%, short-term supply shortages could push prices beyond CNY 150,000 per ton or even CNY 200,000 per ton.
CICC Research noted that overseas lithium mine production remained flat in Q3 2025, reflecting reduced expansion enthusiasm amid low lithium prices earlier in the year. Despite a price rebound in Q3, overseas miners responded slowly. South American brine-based lithium producers saw significant operational improvements in Q3 and remain optimistic about Q4. With sustained strong demand from energy storage batteries, the lithium supply chain is expected to continue destocking, potentially driving lithium prices higher than anticipated. The upper limit of the lithium price forecast has been raised to CNY 120,000 per ton. Investors are advised to focus on low-cost players and companies with potential resource-side production expansions during the lithium price rebound.
Related Hong Kong-listed lithium stocks: TIANQI LITHIUM (09696), GANFENGLITHIUM (01772), and LOPAL TECH (02465).
Comments