Driven by a massive shift of investor capital from foreign exchange and sovereign bond markets into metals, copper prices climbed toward the $13,000 per ton mark, with other metal prices also rising in tandem.
Data from the London Metal Exchange showed copper advanced by as much as 1.8%, while nickel and tin surged more than 3%. U.S. President Donald Trump's reshaping of the geopolitical landscape and his renewed criticism of the Federal Reserve are prompting a flight into assets perceived as havens. While such避险 behavior typically benefits gold and silver, its influence has recently spread to the base metals complex.
This has added further momentum to copper's ascent. Since the middle of last year, copper prices have been on a steady upward trajectory, fueled by supply disruptions at major mines, a demand surge driven by electrification, and a spike in exports ahead of potential U.S. tariffs.
Despite the rise in benchmark prices, the price differentials between various copper futures contracts on the London Metal Exchange have continued to narrow. An increase in copper deliveries to exchange warehouses in the U.S. and Asia, following a severe short squeeze earlier in the week, has alleviated procurement pressure for buyers.
As of Thursday, spot copper on the LME was trading at a discount of $82.84 per ton to the three-month contract, indicating a contango market structure that signals improving supply conditions. This presents a stark contrast to the market structure seen on Tuesday, when spot copper commanded a premium of over $100 to the three-month contract—a backwardation structure reflecting tight supply.
Traders indicated that although the arbitrage window has now closed, more copper inventories are expected to flow into exchange warehouses in the coming weeks.
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