On January 27, international spot gold not only decisively broke through the pivotal 5000 mark but even surged above 5100, delivering another single-day gain of over 100 points. Although the final closing price failed to hold firmly above this level, a sustained breakout appears inevitable. The crucial point is that gold has already breached the 5000 mark, effectively dispelling any lingering doubts; the only question now is how high it can ultimately climb. The strength of the bullish trend is undeniable—any price dip should be viewed as a buying opportunity. Enter the market with a light position and assess the momentum of the rally before considering a medium to long-term hold, adding to your position incrementally along the way. However, it is crucial to remember that while water can buoy a boat, it can also capsize it. Avoid overly heavy positions, as each sharp upward move carries the risk of a significant corrective pullback designed to shake out weak hands. Being stopped out prematurely can be quite frustrating. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chair Powell's speech are scheduled for early Thursday morning, which could potentially yield comments influencing the annual rate-cut outlook. It may be prudent to lighten positions appropriately and wait for a pullback before re-entering the market with additional buys.
The primary driver of gold's trajectory is the comprehensive impact of international geopolitical crises. Against a backdrop of increasingly palpable global economic uncertainty, the search for safe-haven opportunities is likely to channel more capital flows into stable investment markets. Of course, an influx of capital inevitably attracts all sorts of speculative activity, a reality that must be acknowledged by respecting the diversity of market participants. Although the short-term gains have already been substantial, gold has not shown signs of a significant correction. On the contrary, propelled by a combination of factors including heightened geopolitical tensions, escalating policy uncertainty, and a weakening US dollar, it continues to expand its upward trajectory, much like an energetic rabbit hopping with increasing vigor. From a technical perspective, key support below is seen in the 4980-4985 zone. A bullish charge towards the 5100 mark seems almost effortless, and our trading strategy must remain firmly committed to buying on dips. Do not misinterpret a corrective pullback as a trend reversal. On the daily chart, the price continues to maintain a healthy oscillatory uptrend along the short-term moving averages, with no immediate signs of a top formation visible in the short-term outlook. For the near-term daily movement, focus on the support band around 5190.
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