The New Year market sentiment is warming up, with incremental public fund capital continuously flowing into the markets.
According to statistics, as of January 10, 2026, the public fund capital expected to enter the market is estimated to exceed 45 billion yuan: firstly, 22 newly listed stock ETFs with a combined scale of 6.345 billion yuan; secondly, actively managed equity funds established around the year-end and beginning of the year, now entering their build-up phases, with a scale approaching 40 billion yuan.
Observations indicate that incremental public fund capital is a typical reflection of the "deposit shift" trend, manifesting primarily in two ways in New Year market-entry fund products: first, retail investors have become the main force behind ETFs, with many products seeing retail investor share proportions exceed 90%; second, the share scale of active funds has stopped declining since the third quarter of 2025, even showing a slight rebound. Industry insiders suggest the deposit migration trend is expected to bring trillions of yuan in revitalized incremental capital into the investment sphere during 2026, with the majority likely seeking stable products.
ETFs are rapidly building their equity positions.
The most direct source of public fund capital entering the market at the year's start are stock ETFs. According to Wind statistics, as of January 9, a total of 16 ETFs have confirmed listing dates since the beginning of 2026. Among them, 7 ETFs are scheduled to begin trading in the second week of the year (January 12 to January 15).
Specifically, the 7 ETFs cover diverse categories: China Construction Bank Fund is listing a ChiNext Composite Enhanced Strategy ETF; China Asset Management and Penghua Fund are listing CSI All Share Food ETFs. E Fund Management is listing two ETFs: a CSI Construction Machinery Theme ETF and a CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Yield Investment ETF. Additionally, there is HuaBao Fund's CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Healthcare Theme ETF and Ping An Fund's Hang Seng China Central SOEs Dividend ETF.
In the first week of the year (January 5 to January 9), 9 ETFs have already begun trading, covering sectors such as artificial intelligence, satellites, chips, biotechnology, and the STAR Market.
The listing of these 16 ETFs brings a combined capital scale of nearly 5 billion yuan. Among them, Penghua's CSI STAR & ChiNext AI ETF has a scale close to 700 million yuan, and Ping An's Hang Seng China Central SOEs Dividend ETF has a scale exceeding 500 million yuan. Furthermore, as of January 9, there are 6 additional ETFs that have been established but await confirmed listing dates, covering popular thematic sectors like general aviation, new energy, industrial software, and chip design. In total, the incremental capital from these 22 ETFs reaches 6.345 billion yuan.
Retail investors are the primary force behind the New Year's ETF market entries, with individual holdings reaching 90% for many products. For instance, the Penghua CSI All Share Food ETF scheduled for listing on January 13 and the ChinaAMC CSI All Share Food ETF scheduled for January 14 both have retail investor share proportions exceeding 94%. For the latter, the top 8 holders in its top ten shareholder list are all retail investors. The E Fund CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Yield Investment ETF, listed on January 12, has a retail investor share proportion of 93.92%, with 6 out of its top ten holders being retail investors.
Looking at the ETFs that entered the market in the first week, public fund equity positions have increased rapidly within days. The Guotai AMC CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF listed on January 9; its prospectus published on January 6 showed that equity holdings accounted for 4.8% of the fund's total assets. By January 8, the proportion of assets invested in the underlying index constituents and alternative constituents had risen to 96.59%. The Fullgoal恒生Biotech ETF, listed on January 8, had an equity position of 15.90% according to its January 5 prospectus. By January 7, the proportion of assets invested in the underlying index constituents and alternative constituents reached 98.01%.
Newly established active equity funds are still in the early stages of position building.
Apart from ETFs, actively managed equity funds established around the year-end and beginning of the year, now entering their build-up phases, constitute the second category of public fund capital entering the market at the start of the year. Wind data shows that as of January 9, a total of 72 equity funds established since November 2025 have raised approximately 39.208 billion yuan in aggregate.
Specifically, 14 funds have raised over 1 billion yuan each. Among them, GF Quality Select, E Fund Industry Select, and Fullgoal Xinghe each raised over 3 billion yuan. Penghua Qihang Quantitative Stock Selection raised over 2.5 billion yuan. Additionally, funds like J.P. Morgan Huiji Growth and China Universal Value Drive raised over 1.5 billion yuan. Notably, many of these funds come from small and medium-sized public fund companies; for example, Guojin Zhiyuan Quantitative Stock Selection raised nearly 1.5 billion yuan, and Huisheng Fund's Balanced Return also raised over 1 billion yuan.
A market professional from a Beijing-based small/medium public fund company stated that the significant fundraising success is attributable to two factors: firstly, it relates to the market conditions around the year-end, where profitable effects from the tech rally stimulated capital enthusiasm; secondly, it is linked to well-known fund managers leading the funds, including managers from large firms like Fan Yan (Fullgoal Xinghe) and Lan Xiaokang (Zhongou Xinyue One-Year Hold), as well as managers from smaller firms like Sheng Fengyan (Western Lead Specialized SME Quantitative Selection) and Qian Ruinan (Huisheng Balanced Return).
In terms of investment focus, among these new funds, there are products with broad market strategies, but a greater number are distinct thematic products. Examples include CITIC-Prudential Pharma Select and Zhongou Medicine & Biology focused on healthcare; E Fund Consumption Opportunity, Puying Anxheng HK Connect Consumption, and Huaan Consumption Intelligence Select focused on consumer sectors; and Guolian An Dividend Smart Selection and CCB Principal Dividend Strict Selection focused on dividend strategies.
As of January 9, the net asset value fluctuations of these newly established funds have generally been small since inception, indicating they are still in the early stages of building positions, with the majority of raised capital yet to be deployed. Specifically, the 72 funds have an average return of 3.08% since establishment, with a median return of 2.12%. Among them, 52 funds have returns below 4% since inception. GF Quality Select, established on December 23, 2025, with a raised amount of 3.759 billion yuan, has seen its A-share net value volatility remain below 0.1% since inception. E Fund Industry Select, established on November 4, 2025, with a raised amount of 3.162 billion yuan, has only achieved a 0.83% return for its A-shares since inception. Zhongou Xinyue One-Year Hold, established on November 17, 2025, has a return of 1.63% for its A-shares since inception.
The scale of new revitalized capital is projected to be in the "trillions".
The inflow of public fund capital at the year's start occurs against a backdrop of improving market sentiment. Combined with the phenomenon of ETF holders being predominantly retail investors, the industry believes this is related to the recent migration of household deposits and holds significant trend implications.
Ping An Fund stated that, from a market liquidity perspective, the potential for household savings and wealth management products to enter the stock market is substantial. Using the scale of excess savings accumulated by households over the past three years as a reference for potential market-entry capital, estimates indicate that new deposits and bank wealth management products totaled approximately 50 trillion yuan from 2022-2024, with "excess savings" accounting for about 5 trillion yuan.
Guotai AMC cited CICC测算 data showing that in 2026, approximately 20.7 trillion yuan, 9.6 trillion yuan, and 1.3 trillion yuan in 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year household time deposits will mature respectively, representing an increase of 4 trillion yuan compared to 2025. In the current interest rate environment, some capital with higher risk tolerance may gradually and indirectly access the equity market through equity-linked wealth management products or fund systematic investment plans, seeking higher returns.
CICC research shows that in the first 11 months of 2025, household time deposits increased by 3.4 trillion yuan less compared to the same period in 2023. Concurrently, bank wealth management products, public funds, and private securities funds saw increases of 4.3 trillion yuan, 2.8 trillion yuan, and 1.7 trillion yuan more, respectively, while insurance premium income also increased by 1.2 trillion yuan more than two years prior. The household savings rate is expected to decline to around 10%-12.5% in 2026, potentially releasing an additional 2-4 trillion yuan in revitalized capital compared to 2025, which is highly likely to flow into the investment sector, with the majority seeking stable products.
"We have indeed observed the deposit migration phenomenon, which is currently moderate overall. Client demand for public funds has changed significantly," analyzed Tan Huaqing, Chief Macro Analyst at Harvest Wealth, noting two signs from 2025 public fund share changes: first, the declining trend in active equity fund shares that started in 2023 halted after September 2025, even showing a slight rebound; second, during the previous decline in active equity fund shares, stock index fund shares continued to rise. Following the market recovery, investor confidence in equity funds is also being restored. Simultaneously, the rapid issuance of diverse index fund types has enriched investors' allocation tools.
"Equity investment is expected to continue outperforming in 2026, and we look forward to more significant inflows of household savings into the stock market," said Tang Ge, Chief Investment Officer of Founder Fubon Fund. He noted that in 2025, A-share revenue growth and profit growth bottomed out and rebounded, listed companies' ROE levels gradually stabilized, private capital and margin lending saw significant increases, and valuations improved markedly. In 2026, A-share profit growth and ROE levels are expected to continue recovering, with earnings growth also helping to digest some of the valuation premiums.
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