Persistent conflict in Iran has kept oil prices elevated, according to Schroders investment energy fund manager Malcolm Melville. He stated that the near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused unprecedented severe disruptions to energy transportation. The strait's normal oil shipment volume is 20 million barrels per day, which has now sharply decreased to 2-3 million barrels per day, with most of that being oil shipped from Iran to China. Asian and European nations are more significantly impacted by the Iran conflict due to their limited oil reserves. It would not be surprising if these countries work to address this issue over the coming years. These long-term factors are expected to provide support for oil prices in the medium term.
Malcolm Melville stated, "Unable to export oil, producer countries first filled their domestic storage facilities. Once storage reached capacity, production had to be halted. Currently, approximately 10 million barrels per day have been shut in from the market." The first round of talks between the U.S. and Iran yielded no agreement, and the U.S. President announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. He believes that unless the number of vessels transiting the strait surges over the next two weeks, the market will not be convinced the crisis has ended. Given that pre-conflict vessel traffic was around 130 to 150 ships, an increase to just 20-30 ships would be insufficient. "If vessel numbers can recover to 75% of pre-war levels, that would indicate traffic is nearing normalization."
However, even if shipping levels recover swiftly, considering the daily production shut-in of about 10 million barrels and damage to some facilities, production levels will take weeks or even months to restore. This implies that crude oil prices are unlikely to quickly fall back to pre-conflict levels, and the uncertainty surrounding the timing of production recovery should provide support for prices. Malcolm Melville indicated that, in the long term, this conflict highlights the vulnerability of the energy supply system and the lack of strategic reserves in many countries, which is a positive factor for oil prices over the long run. Replenishing the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve alone would require continuous purchases at a rate of 1 million barrels per day for 18 months to return its inventory to normal levels. Given that global oil demand has grown by an average of 1 million barrels per day in recent years, this signifies a substantial increase in demand.
He suggested that any potential peace agreement seems more likely to stem from a U.S. desire to shift focus to other matters rather than genuine change within the Iranian regime. This implies that even if a longer-term ceasefire is reached, oil prices would continue to reflect a Middle East risk premium for some time. "Unless Iran transforms into a pro-Western nation—a scenario with low probability—these events have raised the long-term equilibrium level for oil prices across all other plausible scenarios."
Comments