Orient Securities released a research report indicating that the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is set at 797,844 tons, with domestic consumption quotas at 394,082 tons. Compared to 2025, the total production quota increased by 5,962 tons, while domestic quotas rose by 4,502 tons.
On the demand side, cooling equipment such as air conditioners and automobiles continues to grow, driving sustained demand for refrigerants as ownership rates rise. With minimal changes in quota allocation from 2025 to 2026, the policy remains consistent, supporting an upward trend in refrigerant market conditions. Companies with leading quota shares are expected to benefit.
Key points from Orient Securities include: - **Quota Allocation Stability**: The 2026 quota shows marginal increases, with R32 up 1,171 tons, R134a up 3,242 tons, and R245fa up 2,918 tons, while R143a, R227ea, and R152a saw reductions. - **Price Momentum**: As of December 12, 2025, mainstream third-generation refrigerants (R134a/R125/R32/R410) traded at ¥57,500/¥45,500/¥62,500/¥54,000 per ton, with weekly/monthly/quarterly/yearly gains reflecting strong upward trends. - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: - **Supply**: Quota constraints since 2024 ensure rigid supply. - **Demand**: Air conditioner production reached 230.34 million units domestically (Jan-Oct 2025, +3% YoY), while automobile output hit 27.325 million units (+11% YoY), sustaining refrigerant demand.
Orient Securities anticipates a bullish cycle for third-generation refrigerants, driven by steady demand growth under quota limitations. Key beneficiaries include
**Risks**: Volatile raw material prices, weaker-than-expected refrigerant demand, and rapid advancements in fourth-generation alternatives.
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