On Wednesday (November 4), the previous trading day, international gold prices rebounded sharply and closed higher. This came after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections, with their leaders seeking to revoke Trump's tariffs and end the war, while also weakening bets on further tightening by the Federal Reserve. As a result, international crude oil at one point plunged nearly 10%, and the U.S. dollar index recorded its largest single-day drop in three weeks, ultimately closing down 0.33%, which pushed gold prices higher. This allowed gold to recover most of the losses from the previous week and the week before, with bullish momentum strengthening somewhat, though it remains below the previously broken trendline support. A rebound would need to climb back above this line at $4,140 to strengthen further toward the $4,400 mark; otherwise, there remains a risk of falling back to test the $3,800 level.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $3,931.19 per ounce, first hitting an intraday low of $3,919.72. It then fluctuated upward, with bullish momentum increasing during the midday session, leading to consecutive rallies. During the European session and the first half of the U.S. session, prices consolidated above $4,030, and in the early morning hours, another rally pushed gold to an intraday high of $4,070.10. Ultimately, upward momentum slowed, and prices entered a narrow consolidation, closing at $4,060.03. The daily range was $150.38, with a gain of $128.84, or 3.28%.
Looking ahead to today, Thursday (November 5), international gold opened higher again, extending yesterday's bullish momentum. On the fundamental side, following the Democrats' midterm election control and their leaders' pursuit of ending the war, this is expected to suppress oil prices and weaken the prospect of rate hikes, which is bullish for gold. Meanwhile, the market also anticipates clearer progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations expected on Friday. Therefore, short-term strength is likely to persist, with further focus on the 30-day moving average resistance target at $4,100 and the ascending trendline resistance near $4,130. Today, attention can be given to the U.S. October Challenger job cuts figure (in tens of thousands), the UK central bank interest rate decision for November 5 (expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, bullish for the pound and bearish for the dollar), U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 31 (expected to be higher than the previous reading, indicating an increase in unemployment, bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold), and the U.S. October Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Overall, the bias is bullish for gold, so intraday operations can still focus on buying on dips.
Technically, on the weekly chart, gold has now fallen into the ascending trend channel that began in 2024 and has touched the 100-week moving average support as expected. The main chart's ZZ indicator also shows a bottoming-out after the pullback, and short-term rebound demand has emerged. Currently, the weekly chart is forming a bullish engulfing pattern that signals a halt to the decline and a bullish outlook, which will increase bullish expectations for next week and the week after. Even if Friday closes with an inverted hammer, it would still be a bottoming bullish pattern, so next week will continue to be viewed as bullish for a rebound. On the daily chart, gold is further rebounding and strengthening. Although short-term strength persists, resistance pressure should also be noted. On the upside, attention should be paid to the previously broken trendline and the prior consolidation range resistance; breaking above the previous structure would be needed to further rally toward $4,340 and $4,400. On the downside, focus on the 100-day moving average support and the bottom support of the ascending trend channel.
Below are initial long and short level references for intraday operations. Specific entry and exit points are subject to real-time notifications: Gold: downside support near $4,050 or $4,000; upside resistance near $4,100 or $4,130 and $4,180. Silver: downside support at $52.00 or $51.30; upside resistance at $53.30 or $54.20.
Comments