Abstract
Clover Health Corp will report its quarterly results on February 26, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus revenue and earnings trajectories, compares them with the last quarter’s performance and segment mix, and highlights the principal drivers that could shape the print and subsequent commentary.Market Forecast
Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of $467.06 million, implying 22.09% year-over-year growth, alongside an estimated EPS of -$0.10, which implies a -58.97% year-over-year change. Forecast EBIT is -$43.59 million with an implied -65.69% year-over-year change; consensus does not provide a gross margin or net margin projection, so those are omitted.The main business is expected to remain the revenue anchor through Medicare-related premiums, with the near-term outlook framed by growth in premiums balanced against the trajectory of medical claims costs and operating expenses. Within the company’s revenue mix, ancillary and other income remains smaller in absolute terms and is not expected to be a primary driver this quarter, but it provides optionality for incremental revenue alongside the core premium stream.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Clover Health Corp delivered revenue of $496.65 million, up 50.05% year over year, with a gross profit margin of 14.73%, a GAAP net loss attributable to the parent of $24.38 million (net margin -4.91%), and EPS of -$0.05, representing a -150.00% year-over-year change. Quarter on quarter, the net loss widened, with net profit quarter-on-quarter growth measured at -130.45%, indicating a materially larger loss versus the preceding quarter.A noteworthy highlight is that revenue exceeded the prior consensus by $25.56 million (a beat of approximately 5.43%), even as profitability metrics undershot expectations: EPS of -$0.05 missed by $0.02 versus an estimated -$0.03, and EBIT of -$24.38 million fell short of estimates by $16.96 million. Within the revenue mix, net premiums totaled $479.13 million and accounted for 96.47% of company revenue, with the 50.05% year-over-year revenue expansion primarily supported by growth in this core premium stream; other income contributed $17.52 million.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business: Premium revenue scale vs. medical cost control
Consensus implies top-line growth of 22.09% year over year to $467.06 million, but a sequential decline of roughly 5.96% from $496.65 million. For a business centered on premium revenue, the gap between top-line expansion and bottom-line performance rests primarily on the path of claim costs embedded in the medical cost ratio (the inverse of gross margin). The last reported gross margin of 14.73% implies an approximate medical cost ratio near 85.27%, so investors will focus on whether utilization trends, claim severity, and reserve development allow that ratio to improve or remain stable against year-ago levels, even if sequential patterns show normal seasonal movements.Profitability in the main business is further shaped by how accurately claims are accrued and subsequently settled. When actual claims development exceeds accrual assumptions, margin compression results; the reverse can support margin recovery. The previous quarter’s combination of a significant revenue beat alongside a miss on EBIT and EPS underscores that claims intensity and timing can override top-line surprises. Attention therefore centers on whether the company’s claims experience this quarter aligns with internal accruals and prior patterns, and whether management commentary indicates normalization in key cost buckets such as inpatient admissions, outpatient procedures, and pharmacy costs.
Operating leverage also matters for the main business. General and administrative spending that scales slower than premium growth can cushion losses and move the earnings profile toward breakeven, while any elevated spend on technology, care-management programs, or compliance can widen losses despite revenue gains. Given the EPS estimate of -$0.10 and EBIT of -$43.59 million, consensus suggests operating losses persist this quarter. The key debate within the main business remains whether claims cost discipline and expense management can converge fast enough to narrow losses as the premium base expands year over year.
Most promising business: Ancillary and other income as incremental upside
While the core engine is premiums, other income of $17.52 million in the previous quarter demonstrates a developing, though still modest, revenue stream relative to the total. Ancillary and other income can include items that scale with member engagement and program performance. These lines often carry different margin characteristics than pure premium revenue and can provide incremental support to the income statement when effectively executed and controlled.From a forecasting perspective, consensus does not break out this segment for the current quarter, and year-over-year comparisons by sub-segment are not provided by the data set used here. That means the focus is less on absolute dollar contribution in the immediate term and more on signals from management about durability, margin characteristics, and scalability. If the company shows that non-core income grows consistently alongside the premium base and carries favorable margins, this segment could contribute disproportionately to gross profit over time. Investors will listen for detail on how these ancillary lines complement the core offering, what the trajectory of monetization looks like, and whether any lumpy items from the prior quarter will repeat.
Even though ancillary revenue does not drive the quarterly forecast today, it can act as an early indicator of maturing unit economics when combined with premium expansion and stable claims. A steady cadence of modest gains here may serve as an earnings stabilizer during periods when medical costs are volatile, while also offering a potential foundation for longer-term diversification of revenue.
Key stock-price swing factors this quarter
The most immediate determinant of share-price reaction is the spread between reported margins and what the market has embedded in expectations. With no published margin forecast in the dataset, the look-through is via EPS and EBIT estimates that remain negative. If reported claims costs translate to a gross margin above last quarter’s 14.73%, investors could interpret that as early evidence of improving medical cost trends; conversely, any sign of adverse development or elevated utilization would likely pressure sentiment even if revenue meets or exceeds estimates.Another swing factor is the balance of sequential dynamics against the year-over-year growth narrative. A sequential revenue decline to $467.06 million alongside a 22.09% year-over-year increase signals that membership and premium rates have expanded relative to last year, yet near-term seasonality or utilization may constrain reported revenue versus the immediately preceding quarter. How management contextualizes this sequential movement—particularly on utilization, benefit design changes, or timing effects in accruals—could influence whether investors focus on the favorable year-over-year comparison or the near-term deceleration.
Finally, the progression of operating losses matters for valuation frameworks that emphasize the path to breakeven. The prior quarter’s net margin of -4.91% and EPS shortfall, coupled with consensus EPS of -$0.10, keep the conversation centered on when losses will narrow. A credible roadmap that pairs premium scale with improved claims predictability and expense discipline can shift attention from headline losses to the trajectory of per-member economics. Any guidance on expected cost trend moderation, administrative efficiencies, and the cadence of quality-related payments during 2026 could shape forward multiples even more than the quarter’s absolute EPS number.
Analyst Opinions
Across the period from January 1, 2026 to February 19, 2026, there have been no identifiable analyst previews or newly published rating changes in the collected dataset that directly handicap Clover Health Corp’s upcoming quarterly results. With no new directional calls within this defined window, there is no observable majority view to quantify as bullish versus bearish, and institutional commentary appears limited in scope over this period. In practical terms, that leaves the share reaction more dependent on the company’s reported results and any incremental color management provides on claims trends, expense discipline, and revenue visibility for 2026, rather than a preexisting consensus of directional institutional views.In the absence of a fresh consensus narrative from analysts in the specified time frame, investor attention typically reverts to the balance of this quarter’s quantitative markers. The expected 22.09% year-over-year revenue growth to $467.06 million contrasts with persistently negative EPS of -$0.10, spotlighting the same profitability levers that dominated last quarter’s debate. If the company demonstrates tangible progress on margin drivers—such as better-than-assumed claims development or operating expense efficiencies—this could recalibrate expectations and inform subsequent analyst updates.
Beyond the printed figures, watch for how management frames the runway for 2026. Commentary that clarifies seasonality, medical cost management initiatives, and the cadence of quality-related revenue would help refine models in the absence of recent external previews. Given the limited institutional signaling in the observed period, the earnings call and any accompanying disclosures may have an outsized role in shaping near-term sentiment.
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