Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, stated that with inflation expected to cool, the US 10-year Treasury yield around 5% appears "very attractive."
"To buy 10-year Treasuries at a 5% yield, you have to be relatively optimistic that productivity will drive inflation down, and I think that will happen," Yardeni said in an interview. "I think a 5% yield is very attractive."
Yardeni's comments came as US Treasuries were poised for a second consecutive day of gains, following a sweeping Democratic victory in the midterm elections that fueled expectations that the Trump administration's tax and spending plans could be constrained. Yields across all maturities in the world's largest bond market fell by at least four basis points, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.84%, the lowest level since September 10.
Yardeni is a Wall Street strategist known for popularizing the "Fed Model" framework for stock valuation, which compares the forward earnings yield of the S&P 500 with the US 10-year Treasury yield. He said interest rates are now "back to long-term normal levels."
"The inflation outlook for the next decade is roughly between 2% and 2.5%," he said. "At the same time, if you can get a 2.5% real return, that's actually quite good in the bond market."
He believes the 10-year Treasury yield will fluctuate between 4% and 5%, a range closer to typical levels seen before the global financial crisis.
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