**Protein Meal:** On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans hit a seven-week low amid a broad sell-off in agricultural commodities. Persistent concerns over U.S. export demand and expectations of a bumper harvest in Brazil drove further selling pressure. With South American soybeans expected to be more competitively priced upon their market release in January and February, U.S. soybean exports face challenges. Data from Brazil’s Vegetable Oil Association showed that in October 2025, Brazilian processors crushed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, with inventories at 11.26 million tons. Domestically, protein meal prices remained weak due to ample supply, smooth forward soybean procurement, ongoing losses in livestock farming, and cautious feed ingredient purchases. High soybean crushing volumes and elevated oilseed inventories at mills reinforced a bearish outlook. Trading strategy: Maintain a weak-to-consolidated stance.
**Edible Oils:** BMD palm oil fell to a five-month low on Tuesday, pressured by rising inventory concerns and weakness in competing oils. Overnight declines in U.S. soybean oil and Canadian canola added to the downtrend. High-frequency data indicated Malaysia’s palm oil exports for December 1–15 dropped 15.9%–16.4% month-on-month, with the contraction widening from the first 10 days. Production during the same period dipped less than 3%, signaling slow inventory drawdowns. Domestically, edible oils trended lower amid weak global markets, fueling expectations of lower costs. Ample supply, tepid demand, and high inventories weighed on prices. Rumors of Canadian canola inquiries triggered a pullback in rapeseed oil. Trading strategy: Sell call options or engage in short-term futures trading.
**Live Hogs:** The hog futures market saw mixed performance on Tuesday, with the near-month 2603 contract edging up slightly while deferred contracts lagged, reflecting a tentative bottoming pattern. In Heilongjiang, live hog prices averaged CNY 10.97/kg, down CNY 0.13/kg from the previous day; Jilin and Liaoning prices also dipped marginally. Inner Mongolia prices fell CNY 0.15/kg to CNY 10.94/kg. Northeast China faced sustained supply pressure for medium-to-large hogs, with current prices ranging CNY 11.0–11.8/kg. Guangdong prices held steady at CNY 12.40/kg, with large-scale farms quoting CNY 12.3–12.8/kg. The 7kg piglet price stood at CNY 270/head. The spread between standard (110–130kg) and heavy (150kg+) hogs widened to -CNY 0.60/kg. Overall, hog prices trended downward weekly, with supply-demand dynamics marked by cautious procurement and slow slaughter volume growth. Market feedback indicated ample inventories among smallholders and expectations of higher future supply, pointing to continued weakness next week. Futures showed near-month contracts hitting new lows, while deferred contracts gained support from disease risks and policy-driven destocking.
**Eggs:** Egg futures declined on Tuesday, with the 2601 contract down 0.26% to CNY 3,114/500kg and the 2603 contract dropping 1.12% to CNY 3,007/500kg. Spot prices were flat at CNY 3.03/jin, with regional variations: Ningjin (pink shell) at CNY 2.95/jin, Heishan (brown shell) at CNY 2.90/jin, and wholesale markets in Puxi and Guangzhou steady at CNY 3.27/jin and CNY 3.30/jin, respectively. Stable short-term supply-demand conditions kept spot prices unchanged. Expectations of slower production growth due to declining chick placements supported a gradual supply reduction. Weak feed costs kept futures range-bound. Strategy: Monitor breeder sentiment on replenishment and culling for supply cues.
**Corn:** Corn futures extended adjustments on Tuesday, with the 2603 contract shedding positions. The March and May contracts faced resistance near weekly moving averages, reflecting technical pressure. Spot prices dipped slightly at northern ports, while Northeast producing areas held steady with limited trading volume. North China prices remained stable, with Shandong processors receiving adequate deliveries and narrow price adjustments. Dry grain supply in the region stayed tight, with modest procurement activity. Demand from processors and feed mills matched supply, maintaining equilibrium. Technically, March and May contracts encountered resistance from mid-May price bands, lacking upward momentum. Near-term consolidation is expected to persist.
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