Abstract
Toll Brothers will post fiscal results on May 19, 2026 Post Market, and investors expect revenue, margins, and orders tone to set the trajectory for summer selling as consensus looks for 2.41 billion US dollars of revenue and 2.56 US dollars EPS in the upcoming quarter.Market Forecast
For the quarter to be reported, the latest forecast points to revenue of 2.41 billion US dollars, an estimated year-over-year decline of 2.91%; forecast EBIT is 333.52 million US dollars, down 15.46% year over year; and projected adjusted EPS is 2.56 US dollars, down 9.50% year over year. Margin forecasts are not explicitly indicated in the latest projections; investors will monitor whether operating efficiency and incentive discipline keep profitability near the recent run-rate.The main business is expected to be driven by deliveries and community activation in key markets, with attention on price realization vs. incentives and the pace of spec inventory conversion to settlements. The most promising segment remains Home Sales at 1.85 billion US dollars in the prior quarter, up 0.77% year over year, supported by fresh model openings and phase releases across California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas.
Last Quarter Review
In the last reported quarter, Toll Brothers delivered approximately 2.15 billion US dollars of revenue, up 0.77% year over year, with gross profit margin at 22.84%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders at 211.00 million US dollars, net profit margin at 9.83%, and adjusted EPS of 2.19 US dollars, up 25.14% year over year. A notable highlight was significant EPS outperformance relative to revenue growth, reflecting favorable mix and cost control versus the year-ago period. By business line, Home Sales contributed 1.85 billion US dollars (about 86% of total, up 0.77% year over year), while Land Sales added 0.29 billion US dollars.Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Home Sales execution and settlement cadence
The quarter’s performance will come down to Home Sales volume, pricing, and incentive levels as the company turns signed contracts into deliveries. The latest forecast implies revenue of 2.41 billion US dollars with a year-over-year decline of 2.91%, suggesting a more balanced mix of deliveries and average selling price against a tougher comparison. With the prior quarter’s gross margin at 22.84%, investors will focus on whether the mix of build-to-order and spec homes, cycle-time efficiency, and targeted incentives can hold gross margin near that recent level. Management’s commentary around community count, model openings, and the timing of spec conversions will be key because even small shifts in the close-rate late in the quarter can materially influence recognized revenue and EPS. The company’s recent operating pattern has emphasized throughput and cost discipline, and the 25.14% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS last quarter demonstrates that operating leverage and product mix can amplify bottom-line results even when top-line growth is modest. For the upcoming print, the 9.50% year-over-year dip expected in EPS to 2.56 US dollars indicates the market anticipates less leverage this period, likely reflecting a slightly lower ASP mix and a normalization in incentive usage compared to last year’s comparator. Given a forecast EBIT of 333.52 million US dollars, attention will also be on SG&A efficiency and the step-up in construction and warranty costs that can influence operating income in a period with flattish to down revenue.Most promising business: Home Sales supported by targeted community expansions
The most promising revenue engine remains the core Home Sales segment, which generated 1.85 billion US dollars in the prior quarter, up 0.77% year over year. The near-term growth underpinning is a pipeline of community activations and model openings that are designed to drive foot traffic and conversion in high-demand submarkets. In the last few months, the company announced new and expanded offerings in several key locales, including new model home openings and phase releases in California master-planned neighborhoods and additional communities in Florida and Georgia. These initiatives are intended to sustain a healthy flow of traffic into the summer selling period, bolster backlog conversion, and support pricing power at the community level where product differentiation and amenities can command premium ASPs. The playbook investors will watch is straightforward: increase shippable spec availability where demand supports quick move-ins, keep build-to-order timelines competitive, and calibrate incentives to protect the most profitable product lines. Combined, these levers should help Home Sales remain the centerpiece of revenue and profit generation for the quarter, even as the model contends with a modest year-over-year revenue decline expected at the consolidated level.Key stock-price drivers this quarter
Three items are likely to matter most for the stock reaction around the release: revenue and gross margin trajectory versus the most recent run-rate; the order environment through the spring selling window; and the cadence of land-related gains. First, while no explicit gross margin guide is embedded in the forecast, the recent 22.84% result establishes a reference point. Investors will scrutinize any commentary on pricing discipline, incentive intensity, product mix, and construction cost trends to triangulate whether margins can remain near low-20s or if they compress alongside the projected revenue decline. Second, order pace and net signed contracts—particularly in communities highlighted by recent model openings—will inform the second-half run-rate, as an improving entry rate would help offset the near-term softness implied by the forecast. Third, land sales were 0.29 billion US dollars in the prior quarter and tend to be lumpy; any outsized contribution or absence can swing EBIT and EPS and may explain variance to consensus even when Home Sales settle in line. Beyond the P&L, investors will also be attentive to commentary on cycle times, cancellation trends, and the spec/build-to-order mix, as shifts here influence both revenue timing and gross margin quality in subsequent quarters.In sum, the setup balances incremental delivery growth from community expansions against a modest year-over-year top-line step down and a cautious posture on operating leverage. If deliveries land toward the high end of internal expectations and incentives remain controlled, the company can still produce a margin profile that supports the forecast EPS even with lower revenue year over year. If the order environment shows improving momentum through late spring, the stock could react more to the outlook than to the quarter’s headline numbers.
Analyst Opinions
Across the opinions collected during the period, the balance is bullish. We identified two bullish views and no bearish views, resulting in a 100% bullish skew among captured items. Wells Fargo has reiterated a positive stance twice this year: analyst Sam Reid maintained a Buy rating with a 170.00 US dollars price target earlier in the year and subsequently lifted the target to 185.00 US dollars more recently. The consistent Buy views emphasize execution through community expansions and a resilient margin framework as key supports for near- to medium-term EPS delivery. From a preview perspective, the majority view anticipates that revenue will track close to the 2.41 billion US dollars forecast and EPS near 2.56 US dollars, with potential upside if deliveries in key California and Florida communities surprise positively or if land-related gains provide a non-core boost to EBIT. Bulls also highlight that the prior quarter’s adjusted EPS advanced 25.14% year over year despite modest revenue growth, arguing that operating controls and product mix can buffer earnings even when the top line is uneven. Against this backdrop, the bullish camp expects management to frame demand trends constructively through the late-spring selling period and to resist broad-based incentives that could jeopardize the recent 22.84% gross margin benchmark.Overall, the majority opinion looks for an in-line to slightly better print on EPS if deliveries modestly outpace the implied run-rate and if operating costs hold in check. The same cohort looks for measured commentary on margin sustainability and a steady cadence of community activations to support second-half bookings. Should the company signal any acceleration in orders or additional high-visibility community openings beyond those already announced, bulls would view that as validation for maintaining positive ratings into the back half of the year.
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