Gold Latest Trend Analysis: On May 14, analysis of gold fundamentals: In early Asian trading on Thursday, May 14, spot gold traded within a narrow range, hovering around $4,700 per ounce. The price of gold experienced volatility and a slight decline for the second consecutive trading day, with spot gold closing slightly lower at $4,688.71 per ounce on Wednesday, May 13, marking a decrease of approximately 0.56%. The U.S. producer price index for April recorded its largest increase since early 2022, coupled with heightened consumer inflation, which has largely dashed market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year and even led to pricing in the possibility of a rate hike next year. India's decision to raise its gold import duty from 6% to 15% further dampens demand. A stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and the attractiveness of equities are collectively exerting pressure on gold.
Gold technical analysis: From the current chart perspective, on the daily timeframe, the gold price retreated after an upward move and is now under pressure below the short-term 5-day moving average. The short-term 20-day and 10-day moving averages are providing support. Bearish momentum is gradually strengthening, with the overall price center continuing to shift lower, indicating a clear correction trend. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the gold price trading below the moving averages. The KDJ indicator remains in a death cross configuration, and volume is aligning with the bearish trend, showing weak rebound strength that has been quickly suppressed multiple times. In terms of support levels, the immediate core support is at 4650-4638. This range represents a key low point from recent consolidation, having absorbed selling pressure multiple times to form effective support. It also serves as a crucial defensive level under the current weak structure; holding this range could alleviate short-term downward pressure. The secondary support is at the 4600 level, an important medium-term support zone. A decisive break below this level could lead to a further test of the 4500 level, triggering technical selling pressure. Regarding resistance levels, the immediate focus is on the 4710 area, with key resistance around 4726. This zone represents the high point of the morning rebound and is a concentration of selling pressure. Under the current weak bias, a rebound is unlikely to break through this area. The secondary resistance above is in the 4760-4770 region, which is a strong resistance zone requiring significant momentum for a successful breakout. A short-term breakthrough appears challenging. Overall, the focus should be on the core support level; a break below would open further downside. In summary, for today's short-term gold trading, the strategy is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is at 4730-4765, while key short-term support is at 4660-4630.
Crude Oil Latest Trend Analysis: Analysis of crude oil fundamentals: In early Asian trading on Thursday, May 14 (Beijing time), U.S. crude oil was trading around $101 per barrel. Although U.S. oil closed down over 1% on Wednesday, it once touched $102.72 per barrel during the session. U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, and the U.S.-Iran negotiation deadlock persists, with market attention on the China-U.S. meeting. Affected by concerns over U.S. interest rate hikes, oil prices closed lower on Wednesday, while investors also focused on the China-U.S. meeting. Brent crude fell 1.73% to $105.55 per barrel, and U.S. crude fell 1.03% to $101 per barrel, but remained above the $100 level. On the supply side, U.S. EIA data showed that crude oil inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels last week (against an expected decline of 2.1 million barrels), gasoline inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels, and distillate stocks unexpectedly increased by 200,000 barrels. Additionally, OPEC revised down its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, while the IEA stated that the war has damaged Middle East oil production, and global supply will be unable to meet demand.
Crude oil technical analysis: From the daily chart perspective, the oil price is moving around the moving average system, with the medium-term objective trend direction entering a consolidation phase. The overall pattern of crude oil price movement is a secondary rhythm, which has been maintained for two months, with the medium-term subjective trend direction being upward. The current MACD indicator is operating near the zero axis, showing waning bullish momentum. It is expected that the medium-term trend will continue to be dominated by consolidation. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, crude oil maintains an upward consolidation rhythm. The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, supporting the oil price, with the short-term objective trend direction being upward. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator is operating above the zero axis, forming a bearish divergence, signaling a weakening of bullish momentum. The morning session saw very limited upward movement in oil prices with low continuity. It is expected that there will be some intraday volatility, with the primary trend still upward. In summary, for today's crude oil trading, the strategy is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is at 105.0-110.0, while key short-term support is at 95.0-90.0.
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