In a recent research report, Deutsche Bank highlighted that Pop Mart's online sales in the Chinese market for May 2026 experienced a year-on-year decline of 5%, along with a sequential drop of 14%, attributed to a high comparison base and a phenomenon termed "fashion fatigue." The performance in May was 25% lower than the average monthly sales recorded in the second half of 2025.
Significantly, this marks the first instance since 2024 that Pop Mart has reported a year-on-year decrease in its online sales, signaling a reversal of its previously robust growth trajectory.
The bank stated that the latest figures confirm its earlier forecast that Pop Mart would encounter increasing sales pressure in its domestic market starting from the second quarter of 2026.
Deutsche Bank believes this pressure is likely to intensify further in the latter half of the current year, primarily driven by the high base effect and a cooling interest in intellectual property within the Chinese market.
Since the beginning of 2026, Pop Mart has been actively launching new products, which have served as the key driver for its recent sales. However, with the strengthening base effect in the second quarter, the gradual emergence of "fashion fatigue" following a series of intensive new releases, and an increase in product supply, Deutsche Bank predicts that Pop Mart will enter a more pronounced downturn in both the Chinese and overseas markets during the second half of 2026.
Deutsche Bank has assigned a "Sell" rating to the stock, with a target price of HK$140.
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