OPEC+ has decided to keep its oil production policy unchanged for October, as announced during a Sunday meeting. The producer group stated in a release that it needs to reach a consensus on new quotas before determining any subsequent steps regarding output levels.
The meeting, which included seven core members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman — took place while the ongoing conflict with Iran continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has limited OPEC+'s ability to influence prices and its share of the global market.
In August, the group agreed to raise production for September, completing a phased reversal of the 1.65 million barrels per day supply cut plan first introduced in 2023. Despite this agreement to increase output, the cartel — comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia — has seen actual production remain far below its targets due to wartime constraints.
Iran Conflict Dampens OPEC's Influence
"OPEC+ currently holds very limited sway over the physical oil market," said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy. "The group can adjust production targets on paper, but there is no guarantee those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market. The focus has now shifted away from monthly output adjustments toward the more critical debate regarding 2027."
The group also maintains an additional layer of production cuts covering most of its 21 member nations, which is set to remain in place through the end of 2026. Before deciding how to phase out these cuts and return supply to the market, the organization needs to review members' production capacity to establish output baselines for 2027, which form the foundation of their quotas.
Sources indicated earlier that this debate could take place later in 2026, which may lead OPEC+ to pause production increases during the fourth quarter. Sunday's statement made no mention of policy beyond October.
In recent years, only the seven members who gathered on Sunday — along with the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC in May — have participated in monthly production decisions. These seven nations are scheduled to hold their next meeting on October 4.
Oil prices climbed more than 7% this week as the conflict with the US entered its seventh month and both sides resumed military action, while US diesel prices reached record highs. Brent crude futures settled 76 cents higher at $96.28 per barrel on Friday, and West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 18 cents to close at $91.48 per barrel. On the week, Brent gained nearly 8% while WTI advanced close to 10%.
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