A recent typhoon brought prolonged, historically intense rainfall to parts of Guangxi, the nation's largest sugarcane-producing region responsible for over 60% of China's sugar supply. While the storm caused noticeable damage in localized areas like Nanning and Guigang, the overall foundation for a sugarcane production increase in Guangxi remains intact as the currently shorter cane stalks can be righted and continue growing after lodging. Against a backdrop of high inventories, domestic sugar prices continue to face downward pressure from the prevailing oversupply situation.
Damaged Area Accounts for Approximately 3.8% of Guangxi's Total Plantings
Typhoon Maysak made landfall in Dongxing City, Fangchenggang, Guangxi, in the early hours of July 5th, lingering over the region for an unusually long 26 hours. This triggered torrential rain across approximately 77% of the region's townships, with cumulative rainfall in many areas breaking historical records. By July 7th, crop damage in Guangxi had reached 12,900 hectares. The typhoon struck during the critical jointing and elongation stage for sugarcane, a period of rapid height growth and high water demand. The resulting waterlogging, lodging, and nutrient loss introduced uncertainty for the upcoming crushing season's sugar output in Guangxi.
An expert from the Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences noted that while the typhoon affected sugarcane areas across the region to varying degrees, the impact was severe in specific areas like Nanning, Guigang, and Beihai. In Nanning's Hengzhou area, approximately 134,000 mu (about 8,933 hectares) were affected, with significant flooding. In Guigang, the affected area was about 300,000 mu (20,000 hectares). Beihai suffered direct wind damage, leading to widespread stalk breakage across roughly 18,000 mu (1,200 hectares). Combined, the affected area in these three locations represents about 3.8% of Guangxi's total sugarcane planting area of approximately 12 million mu (800,000 hectares).
Statistics from Hengzhou indicate that of its 270,000 mu (18,000 hectares) of cane, lodging affected 50,453 mu (3,364 hectares), with severe lodging on 6,440 mu (429 hectares). Additionally, 13,647 mu (910 hectares) experienced waterlogging, with 2,000 mu (133 hectares) completely submerged. It is estimated that the damaged area in Hengzhou could result in a sugarcane yield loss of around 23,000 tonnes. However, the situation has not escalated into a widespread disaster across all major producing areas.
According to industry analysis from a Guangxi-based sugar technology firm, this typhoon constituted a regional disaster and does not amount to a province-wide reduction in output. Aside from the heaviest damage in Nanning and Guigang, core producing regions like Chongzuo, Liuzhou, and Laibin were minimally affected overall, making a precipitous drop in the region's total production unlikely.
The general manager of an agricultural company with plantings covering Chongzuo, Nanning, and Baise reported that only about 1-2% of its 240,000 mu (16,000 hectares) of cane was flooded, with minor localized lodging. He explained that the cane is currently in its early growth stage, averaging just over one meter in height, compared to over three meters at maturity, making lodging less severe. The resilient, shorter stalks can often be righted to resume growth. Compared to flooding, drought is actually a greater threat to Guangxi's sugarcane; most plants can recover if floodwaters recede within a week.
Experts advise that post-disaster management for flooded fields should focus on urgent drainage. For lodged cane, timely righting, bundling, and soil banking around the roots are crucial, alongside scientific fertilization and enhanced pest and disease monitoring to minimize losses.
Oversupply Situation Remains Unchanged
More than weather, the fundamental supply-demand dynamic is currently the primary driver of sugar price trends. The market is caught between high inventory pressure and expectations of reduced output, providing some price support but insufficient momentum for a significant rally, with strong supply and weak demand being the dominant theme.
Industry data shows that by the end of June, the 2025/26 crushing season had concluded nationally with cumulative sugar production of 12.95 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7878 million tonnes year-on-year. Cumulative sales were 8.46 million tonnes, leaving industrial sugar inventories at 4.49 million tonnes. In Guangxi specifically, the 2025/26 season produced 7.6974 million tonnes, up 1.2324 million tonnes year-on-year, with industrial inventories reaching 2.6694 million tonnes by end-June. Data from a third-party warehousing platform indicates Guangxi's white sugar warehouse inventories stand at 2.08 million tonnes, near a five-year high for the period.
Amid high production and inventories, the market has reacted relatively calmly to the localized cane damage. In futures trading, the main sugar contract closed at 5,255 yuan per tonne on July 14th, with the May 2027 contract at 5,418 yuan per tonne, showing a slight consecutive decline since July 7th.
An analyst noted that recent futures volatility reflects the full pricing-in of both bullish and bearish factors. The 2025/26 season's 12.95 million-tonne output ranks among the top three historically, domestic industrial inventories remain at elevated levels, and spot supply pressure is significant, with expectations for increased production next season still in place. Conversely, controls on sugar syrup imports and the extension of import license policies have restricted some foreign sugar entry, providing some support to domestic prices.
Looking ahead, with expectations for increased Guangxi sugarcane output, sugar prices still face pressure. Driven by recent policies encouraging the conversion of eucalyptus plantations back to sugarcane, a research report indicated that prior to the typhoon, Guangxi's sugarcane planting area this year was projected to increase by about 5% year-on-year. It is estimated that Guangxi's sugar output for the 2026/27 season could increase by a further 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes from the 2025/26 season base, potentially reaching the 8 million-tonne level.
However, those consulted unanimously stated that weather will remain the most significant variable in the coming months. Continuous monitoring of weather changes from July to September and post-disaster field management is essential, as these are core factors that will determine sugarcane yield per unit area and sugar content for the 2026/27 season.
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