On March 12, Hong Kong stock markets saw a net inflow of HK$11.283 billion from northbound capital. Specifically, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net purchase of HK$6.15 billion, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect registered a net inflow of HK$5.132 billion.
The top stocks by net northbound purchases were the Tracker Fund (02800), CNOOC (00883), and SMIC (00981). In contrast, the largest net sales were Tencent (00700), Alibaba-W (09988), and Goldwind Science & Technology (02208).
The Tracker Fund attracted net buying of HK$4.701 billion. Guosen Securities noted that the current economic cycle is at a crossroads between recovery and geopolitical disruptions, with Hong Kong equities focusing on liquidity and earnings fundamentals. The Hang Seng Index's profits continue to be revised upward, while valuations for the Hang Seng Tech Index have hit rock bottom. With share buybacks resuming after annual results and major tech firms accelerating AI development, a synchronized rebound in liquidity and earnings is anticipated.
CNOOC saw net purchases of HK$1.237 billion. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil, citing expectations of prolonged disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank warned that if the strait remains blocked through late March, international oil prices could surpass 2008 peaks.
Northbound capital increased positions in semiconductor stocks. SMIC and HUA HONG SEMI (01347) received net inflows of HK$316 million and HK$33.19 million, respectively. Over the past year, China has made substantial progress in alleviating equipment and foundry bottlenecks. With policy support, domestic foundry capacity and chip supply are expected to meet core sovereign demand by around 2028. The sector maintains a positive outlook on China's AI semiconductor supply chain.
XPENG-W (09868) garnered net buying of HK$125 million. CICC reported that the deployment of VLA2.0 marks the beginning of large-scale Robotaxi implementation, with algorithms, computing power, and data feedback accelerating. Collaboration with Volkswagen has expanded from the G9 platform to E/E architecture and Turing chips, upgrading monetization to a mix of technical service fees and sales royalties. The IRON ET1 humanoid robot deeply leverages automotive-grade supply chains, accelerating the formation of a closed-loop AI ecosystem.
YOFC (06869) attracted net purchases of HK$120 million. Current optical fiber demand recovery is driving price increases. UBS emphasized that the sustainability of this price rise hinges on the pace and scale of capacity expansion. If supply discipline is maintained, fiber prices could stabilize at healthy levels; otherwise, aggressive expansion could trigger a new cycle of oversupply, reminiscent of 2018-2019. UBS channel checks have not identified significant capacity expansion announcements, considering current risks manageable.
Alibaba-W and Tencent faced net sales of HK$429 million and HK$479 million, respectively. Morgan Stanley expressed doubts about the large-scale adoption of OpenClaw-related products in mainland China at this stage, noting that the framework remains an experimental autonomous agent system rather than a mature consumer application. In its current form, challenges in usability, reliability, and security present significant barriers.
Additionally, XFH Group (02473) and Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery (00568) received net inflows of HK$49.54 million and HK$43.26 million, respectively. Goldwind Science & Technology saw net selling of HK$34.86 million.
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