From October 20 to 22, by the Huangpu River in Shanghai, the 2026 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference will return once again. Nobel Prize and Turing Award winners will take the stage to discuss the future and trends of technology, and the internet-famous professor who helps "rescue" people from anxiety and the era of involution, McFarlane, will hold a live dialogue with Xiang Biao!
Limited spots are available, so act fast. Let us join together for the sustainable appointment! [Click to register] On October 16, gold moved in a rebound and range-bound session yesterday. At the Asian session open, it quickly surged from 4100 directly to around 4160, exactly giving a short position entry, and for the rest of the time it basically fluctuated within 30 dollars below 4160. The short position was manually closed near 4140 for a small profit. In the end, gold closed at $4171, with the daily chart forming a bullish candle.
On Friday (October 16), the Federal Reserve had already raised the policy rate by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%–4%. Current market pricing shows the probability of a rate hike at the October meeting has fallen to 26%–29%, while the probability of a hike in December is as high as 88%–93%. Last week, several Fed officials were remarkably consistent in saying "no rush." After one hike in September, raising rates for a second time in a row would deal too much damage to the economy. The market is beginning to believe that the Fed is being "constrained" by fiscal conditions, and that it cannot bear the cost of further large rate increases. However, the thorn of inflation has not been removed. September CPI rose 3.7% year over year (expected 3.6%, previous 3.4%), while core CPI rose 2.6% year over year, both exceeding expectations. The Cleveland Fed president's remarks remain hawkish, emphasizing that if inflation expectations worsen, it could force stronger action. This is the ceiling for gold's rebound — as long as the expectation that "another hike is coming in December" remains intact, gold will struggle to see a one-sided trend.
Technically, on the daily chart, gold is still trading below several moving averages. Although RSI has rebounded from a low level, it remains neutral, and the MACD histogram has just turned positive — this is "repair," not "reversal." Do not mistake a rebound for a bull market. On the downside, watch the $4130 area, which was yesterday's low region; if it is not broken, there is still hope for short-term stabilization. In fact, $4100–$4110 is the lower edge of the key support zone, and a clear break below it could lead to a further decline toward $4050–$4000. Conversely, on the upside, watch $4170–$4180, followed by the $4200 mark. In short, CPI has been released, but gold has not yet escaped its box range. There is no need to rush to chase highs or to sell aggressively. In a range-bound market, patience is more valuable than judging direction — wait for a new catalyst. There is no major news today either, so one can continue trading the 4100–4160 range with quick entries and exits. Therefore, for intraday operations, the recommendation is: Gold: trade the 4100–4160 range, stop loss at 10 dollars, take profit at 40–50 dollars.
Key economic data and events to watch today: Friday, October 16, 2026, 20:30 U.S. September import price index month-over-month; 21:15 U.S. September industrial production month-over-month. Sina partner platform futures account opening is safe, fast, and secure. Sina statement: This message is reprinted from a Sina partner media outlet. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean it agrees with or confirms its views or descriptions. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act based on it do so at their own risk.
Comments