Deutsche Bank has resumed coverage of key stocks in the global brands, discount retail, and specialty beauty sectors. The bank expressed optimism entering 2026, following a surprisingly strong year for retail characterized by resilient consumer demand and an improved pricing and margin environment. It anticipates a macroeconomic backdrop that, while potentially volatile, will generally be "risk-on." Analyst Kristina Cate pointed out that favorable weather comparisons and increased tax refund amounts are expected to maintain robust revenue trends in the first half of the year, acting as catalysts for comparable store sales growth. Furthermore, reduced trade policy uncertainty and ongoing benefits from monetary policy are also viewed as positive factors. Cate wrote in the report, "Additionally, a Supreme Court ruling deeming tariff legality unconstitutional would prompt the retailers we cover to raise their 2026 performance forecasts. We estimate retailers currently pay an average of 20% extra in tariffs; if the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is overturned, a universal 15% tariff rate could be implemented for 150 days, which is still lower than the current 20%." Deutsche Bank estimates that the "Great Beauty Act" will increase tax refunds by approximately $55 billion (total refunds in 2024 were $461 billion). The bank expects these refunds to primarily benefit low- and middle-income consumers facing cost-of-living challenges and reductions in SNAP and Medicaid benefits; meanwhile, affluent households, whose spending power has remained resilient, should benefit from increased State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions. Stocks receiving "Buy" ratings from Deutsche Bank include: Amer Sports (AS.US), Birkenstock (BIRK.US), Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US), Ralph Lauren (RL.US), Ross Stores (ROST.US), and TJX Companies (TJX.US). In contrast, the bank adopted a more conservative view on the following stocks, assigning them all "Hold" ratings: Bath & Body Works (BBWI.US), Burlington Stores (BURL.US), Nike (NKE.US), and Lululemon (LULU.US).
Comments