Due to escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, gold staged a significant rebound today (February 6th). Spot gold once again surpassed $4900 per ounce. The sector's popular ETF - China Resources Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) saw its intraday gains peak at 1.53%, ultimately closing up 0.18% against the market trend, demonstrating resilience.
Capital is voting with its feet, showing optimism for the future performance of the nonferrous metals sector. Over 10 billion yuan in main funds flowed into the nonferrous metals sector, with the China Resources Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) attracting a total of 40.93 million yuan over the previous two consecutive days.
Regarding constituent stocks, Hunan Gold led gains, rising over 9%. Shenzhen Chengxin Lithium Group increased by more than 6%, and Guocheng Mining rose over 5%. Among heavyweight stocks, China Northern Rare Earth gained over 3%, and Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) advanced nearly 2%.
On the news front, US-Iran geopolitical tensions escalated. Iran suddenly warned that it could easily access US military bases; the US urged its citizens to leave Iran as soon as possible. Additionally, the latest US employment data fell short of expectations, increasing anticipation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Likely boosted by these factors favoring gold prices, spot gold surged over 2.5% at one point, reclaiming the $4900 per ounce level.
CITIC Futures indicated that in the short term, investor expectations regarding Fed policy have been fluctuating. The sell-off in precious metals has impacted the nonferrous metals sector. However, considering downstream stockpiling demand before the Chinese New Year, it is estimated that a rapid price decline could help stimulate consumption. Improvements in supply and demand may help stabilize prices. From a medium to long-term perspective, risks to the Federal Reserve's independence and expectations of a weaker US Dollar persist. The overall expectation for improved supply and demand also remains. The nonferrous metals sector is likely to maintain a volatile but relatively strong trend, with price movements for copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel among the base metals viewed favorably.
Guojin Securities believes that the fundamentals of the nonferrous metals sector have undergone significant changes, with important turning points emerging in supply, demand, and inventory: 1. Supply Side: Low capital expenditure, China's "anti-involution" policies, and resource nationalism overseas are significantly impacting the supply of various nonferrous metal varieties. 2. Demand Side: The past five years saw demand from new energy; the next five years will see demand from AI, alongside the rebuilding of manufacturing in Europe and America, further driving demand. 3. Inventory Side: This is an inventory replenishment cycle driven by deglobalization, associated with a potential second term for former US President Trump. The global inventory research framework based on globalization efficiency over the past two decades is becoming obsolete, to be replaced by a deglobalization inventory cycle.
Guosheng Securities posits that a combination of supply-demand mismatches, accommodative macro policies, and industrial upgrading is creating resonance. This "nonferrous metals feast" is not a short-term pulse; high profitability is expected to last for 3-5 years. While the market is bullish on the future performance of nonferrous metals, Dongfang Jincheng points out that short-term caution is needed regarding the risk of speculative funds taking profits, which could increase volatility. Huatai Securities recommends a medium allocation to the nonferrous metals sector, suggesting a 10%-20% weighting within a fund portfolio to both capture potential upside and diversify risk.
The China Resources Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its feeder fund (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track a benchmark index that comprehensively covers industries such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium. It spans different cyclical phases including precious metals (hedge), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery). Full category coverage allows for better capture of the sector's beta movements. Furthermore, this ETF is a margin trading security, making it an efficient tool for a one-stop allocation to the nonferrous metals sector.
A reminder: Recent market volatility may be significant. Short-term gains or losses do not indicate future performance. Investors must make rational investment decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, paying close attention to position and risk management.
ETF Fee Information: When subscribing for or redeeming fund shares, subscription/redemption agencies may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. Fees for场内 trading are subject to the rates charged by the securities company. The ETF does not charge a sales service fee. Feeder Fund Fee Information: For the China Resources Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class A), the subscription fee is 1,000 RMB per transaction for amounts of 2 million RMB or more, 0.6% for amounts between 1 million RMB (inclusive) and 2 million RMB, and 1% for amounts below 1 million RMB. The redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings less than 7 days, and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more. No sales service fee is charged. The China Resources Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class C) charges no subscription fee. The redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings less than 7 days, and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more. The sales service fee is 0.3%.
Risk Warning: The China Resources Nonferrous Metals ETF and its feeder fund passively track the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index. The base date for this index is December 31, 2013, and it was published on July 13, 2015. The index's performance over the last five complete calendar years is as follows: 2021: +35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: +2.96%; 2025: +91.67%. The index's constituent stocks are adjusted according to its compilation rules, and its historical backtested performance does not indicate future index performance. The mention of index constituents herein is for display purposes only; descriptions of individual stocks are not investment recommendations in any form and do not represent the holdings or trading动向 of any fund managed by the management company. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk rating as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for Balanced (C3) and above investors. The appropriateness matching opinion is subject to the selling institution. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to stocks, commentary, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of expression) is for reference only. Investors are solely responsible for their independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts herein do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the reader, nor shall they be held liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks. The past performance of a fund does not indicate its future returns. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Invest in funds with caution.
Comments