A recent report from Orient Securities Company Limited highlights that cross-border e-commerce is a long-term endeavor. From Chinese sellers entering Amazon in 2013 to today's platforms like Shein and Temu, the competitive landscape has undergone a major transformation over the past decade. The firm argues that beneath the surface of platform competition lies a deeper contest in business models, with companies possessing strong brand assets and the ability to seize growth opportunities in new regions, platforms, and categories poised to take the lead.
Key observations from the report include:
From niche to trillion-dollar market: Cross-border e-commerce, primarily export-focused, originated in the 1990s with B2B models and later expanded to B2C. It has evolved through an embryonic stage (pre-2010), rapid expansion (2010-2019), and consolidation (2020-2025), now entering a new phase of high-quality growth. The market is segmented by transaction model (B2B vs. B2C), platform type (independent sites vs. third-party platforms), and product strategy (specialty vs. general goods). According to ECDB, global cross-border e-commerce revenue surpassed $1 trillion in 2024 and is expected to exceed $1.2 trillion by 2026, with a CAGR of around 10%. China's cross-border export e-commerce market is also growing steadily, reaching approximately 2.27 trillion yuan in 2025, with potential to double. The report estimates that the combined market share of top companies rose from 3.52% in 2021 to 4.99% in 2025, indicating a still highly fragmented market where leaders will continue to strengthen barriers through supply chain optimization, brand enhancement, and digital capabilities.
Four key shifts driving a new cycle:
Supply-side changes: Tax regulation has shifted from loose to precise and from random to thorough, making past practices of underreporting and tax evasion unsustainable. The report notes that Amazon's third-party seller concentration is rising, benefiting larger players in expansion and market share gains.
Tariff impacts: US tariffs on Chinese goods are expected to decrease significantly year-over-year by Q2-Q3 2026, affecting inventory, profitability, and cash flow. Progress on tariff refunds is also steady, which should help restore industry profitability.
Inventory cycles: By analyzing inventory ratios, the report finds that cross-border e-commerce has experienced two cycles of inventory buildup and drawdown since 2020. Some companies are now showing inflection points in inventory and profitability, with inventory management skills expected to improve after multiple cycles.
IPO activity: Recent IPOs include one on the Hong Kong Exchange, one on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and three on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with more companies planning listings. These IPOs are primarily brand-focused, confirming industry trends.
Channel, region, and category expansion remain key themes:
Channel comparison: Companies are moving from a heavy reliance on Amazon to a multi-platform strategy. Brands like Anker, Ugreen, and Zhiyan have evolved from Amazon-only brands to omnichannel players, with strong offline and independent site presence. Zoyu utilizes both SC and VC models on Amazon.
Regional comparison: From focusing on Europe and the US to diversifying geographically, companies like Huakai, Anker, Ugreen, and Jihong derive less than 50% of revenue from their top region, highlighting the importance of cross-regional operations.
Category comparison: Branded companies focus on core categories while expanding into new ones, while general goods companies strengthen their base and develop brand businesses, with some showing initial success.
Growth comparison: Anker and Ugreen led in revenue and profit growth from 2021-2025, driven by strong R&D, brand operations, and long-term talent incentives. Some companies faced volatility due to tariffs, shipping costs, and exchange rates.
Operational efficiency: Zoyu, Anker, and Ugreen lead in per-capita revenue generation. Future focus should be on AI's impact on business. Focus, Ugreen, and Anker demonstrate relatively strong exchange rate management.
Risks to consider: Tariff uncertainty, exchange rate fluctuations, shipping and logistics disruptions, and intensifying industry competition.
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