The Strait of Hormuz is now effectively almost entirely closed, with nearly all vessels except those linked to Iran being prohibited from transiting, as the Middle East conflict enters its second week. Earlier, a statement by former President Trump that the military conflict with Iran would "end soon" triggered a significant sell-off in crude oil markets, with benchmark oil prices plunging more than 10%. Although the decline narrowed on Tuesday, shipping companies remain extremely cautious due to direct threats to personnel and vessel safety.
Shipping tracking data indicates that vessel entry into the Persian Gulf has come to a complete halt over the past 24 hours. Only two bulk carriers and a small number of Iran-related vessels, including a supertanker, a container ship, and a bulk carrier, were observed departing the area. Signal interference and the shutting off of vessel transponders are making it difficult to obtain real-time visibility of maritime traffic, with tracking data showing numerous anomalies in vessel positions and speeds.
Vessels leaving the Gulf often only resume transmitting accurate positioning signals after moving away from high-risk zones, meaning many ships remain untracked and may not reappear in satellite data for several days. Similarly, vessels entering conflict zones may also turn off transponders, so historical transit data may be revised upward later. No vessels have been observed entering the Persian Gulf in the past 24 hours.
Although occasional ships have managed to pass through the strait, major global shipping capacity remains stranded on both sides of the waterway until maritime security conditions improve. Following Iran's attacks on multiple commercial ships in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes, transit through the route has largely been suspended, with ongoing missile and drone attacks posing lethal threats to all vessels in the vicinity.
Note: Since ships can sail with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) turned off before departing the Hormuz Strait area, this monitoring covers large portions of the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, and the Red Sea, aggregating automatic positioning signals to identify vessels possibly entering or exiting the Persian Gulf. Suspected transit vessels are cross-checked against their signal history to determine whether their track is genuine or a false positioning caused by electronic interference. If a vessel does not reactivate its transponder, some voyages may go undetected.
Iran-linked tankers typically turn off AIS signals entirely after exiting the Persian Gulf, only restoring them after passing Fujairah and arriving near the Strait of Malacca about ten days later. Other vessels may adopt similar stealth tactics, remaining invisible in tracking systems for several days.
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