The Central Economic Work Conference for 2025 was recently held in Beijing. The conference affirmed the development achievements of the past year, where "China's economy advanced under pressure, moving toward innovation and excellence," and outlined a clear blueprint for economic work in 2026.
Pan Yingli, Director of the Center for Modern Finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Chief Expert of the Shanghai Municipal Government Decision Consulting Research Base Pan Yingli (International Financial Center Construction) Studio, stated in an interview that, looking at the whole of 2026, the supporting conditions and fundamental trends for China's long-term economic improvement remain unchanged, and she believes that over the next decade, China's economy can still maintain an average economic growth rate of over 4%.
Pan Yingli expressed that the development potential and supporting conditions for China's economy have not changed; the country is still in the early-to-middle stage of development, with vast space for future growth. The strong internal drive of the people to pursue a better life is robust enough to support long-term positive economic development.
"The Party's leadership in charting the blueprint and uniting the nation's strength is the fundamental guarantee for China's economy to brave the winds and waves, achieving stability with progress," Pan Yingli said. Consistent and stable long-term planning ensures the coherence and continuity of the national development strategy, and the national system has also demonstrated unique advantages in vigorously developing new quality productive forces.
"The country's vast territory makes its economic development more resilient." Pan Yingli indicated that, firstly, the advantages of large-scale economic effects are significant, and the domestic market is substantial enough to support the development of national industries, unafraid of changes in the international market. Secondly, a multi-dimensional territorial spatial system makes differentiated strategic layouts possible. Regions with different resource endowments can achieve industrial coordination and transfer, building an internal circulation and support system, as seen in national projects like "Computing Power from the East to the West".
The central government possesses strong resource allocation capabilities, enabling the implementation of effective counter-cyclical adjustment policies. Pan Yingli mentioned that the current debt-to-GDP ratio of the central government is at a healthy level, and government bond issuance can be used in the future to effectively mobilize and allocate social resources.
The surging wave of technological revolution is injecting new momentum into economic development. High and new technologies, represented by artificial intelligence, will be deeply applied to industrial transformation and social life in the future, leading to a leap in productivity. Pan Yingli cited international research suggesting that the application of AI could potentially boost economic growth by 0.8 to 1.3 percentage points. A report from CICC Research also shows that AI technology could increase China's 2035 GDP by 9.8% compared to the baseline scenario, equivalent to an additional 0.8 percentage points in the annualized growth rate over the next 10 years.
The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference focuses both on stabilizing growth in the present and planning for long-term transformation, with annual tasks containing medium to long-term strategic deployments. Pan Yingli further elaborated on the long-term planning of economic work.
The first key task of the conference is "persisting in domestic demand-led development and building a strong domestic market." Faced with "strong supply but weak demand" domestically and uncertainty in international market demand, smoothing the domestic circulation has become an inevitable strategic choice. Pan Yingli analyzed that the conference's proposal of "combining investment in physical capital with investment in human capital" is a key approach. On one hand, it is necessary to improve the quality and efficiency of enterprise production to meet market demand; on the other hand, it is crucial to improve the social security system, increase per capita disposable income, stabilize future expectations, and fundamentally unleash consumption potential.
The second key task put forward by the conference is "persisting in innovation-driven development and intensifying efforts to cultivate and strengthen new growth drivers," emphasizing all-round scientific and technological innovation and implementing a new round of high-quality development actions for key industrial chains. Pan Yingli stated that achieving high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology is the strategic main line for addressing international challenges, breaking through "chokepoint" problems, and providing core support for high-quality economic development. This will be a continuous effort until 2035, and even 2050.
Simultaneously, promoting a comprehensive green transition with the goal of achieving "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" is also a long-term national development direction. Pan Yingli explained that the energy transition affects the country's economic strength and energy security. At the industrial level, developing new energy means cultivating new growth drivers. Industries such as photovoltaics, wind power, new energy vehicles, and energy storage have large scales and require early layout and leading future investment to grasp market initiative. At the security level, shifting the energy structure from imported fossil fuel dependence to self-sufficient and controllable renewable energy is a long-term deployment for achieving national "energy independence" and enhancing systemic resilience.
Pan Yingli stated that the government should effectively guide three types of economic entities—households, enterprises, and financial institutions—to promote a virtuous cycle in consumption, the labor market, and the capital market, ensuring that enterprises obtain sufficient funds and consumers have stable incomes.
Focusing on the consumer market, Pan Yingli categorized consumer goods into mid-to-low-end and high-end types. She believes that there is overcapacity in mid-to-low-end consumer goods, necessitating efforts from the demand side to stimulate consumption. Besides increasing the disposable income of low-income groups, she also suggested truly starting from human needs, increasing the intensity of preferential policies such as childcare subsidies, increasing the supply of high-quality educational resources, and reducing the costs of childbirth, child-rearing, and education to mitigate the impact of demographic decline on market size.
Regarding high-end consumer goods, Pan Yingli believes the main current issue is insufficient supply. "For example, marine sports, the skiing industry, etc., still have significant room for development. Similar to the outdoor sports sector, industrial potential can be tapped by increasing high-quality supply and enhancing the consumption experience."
The role of industry in employment deserves further attention. Pan Yingli suggested that, against the backdrop of rapid substitution of human labor by production technologies like AI, the government needs to guide the pace of technology application and actively create and promote the development of labor-intensive industries. Concurrently, the government should take the lead in strengthening human resource development and retraining programs to facilitate a smooth transition in the labor market.
In the capital market, Pan Yingli also anticipates more "patient capital" entering the market and recommends extending the assessment period for financial investments, while encouraging residents to share in the returns of innovation through financial intermediaries. "In this process, the government needs to focus on improving capital market efficiency and fortifying risk defenses to prevent financial fraud."
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