Abstract
Neurocrine Biosciences will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on February 11, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue growth, margins, and EPS amid strong product sales momentum and upcoming catalysts.
Market Forecast
Market consensus points to solid top-line expansion for the quarter, with total revenue projected at $792.96 million, reflecting a forecast year-over-year increase of 26.07%, EBIT at $227.51 million with a 12.56% year-over-year gain, and EPS of $1.91 up 22.25% year over year; margin forecasts imply continued healthy profitability, although specific gross and net margin forecasts are not provided. The company’s main business remains product sales, and investors anticipate stable profitability supported by scale and disciplined expense management.
The primary business driver remains product revenue (notably TD, epilepsy, and women’s health franchises), while the most promising growth vector is continued uptake and geographic expansion of core neurology products; product revenue last quarter was $789.90 million, up strongly year over year, and is expected to remain resilient.
Last Quarter Review
Neurocrine Biosciences reported last quarter revenue of $794.90 million, a gross profit margin of 66.79%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $210.00 million, a net profit margin of 26.36%, and adjusted EPS of $2.04, all with positive year-over-year momentum.
One key highlight was the sizeable sequential and annual growth in earnings, with net profit quarter-on-quarter growth of 94.88% and adjusted EPS outperforming expectations. Main business strength centered on product revenue of $789.90 million, with collaboration revenue of $5.00 million; product sales continue to dominate the mix and underpin margin resilience.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main commercial engine: Product sales momentum and margin durability
Product revenue remains the centerpiece of performance, accounting for the overwhelming majority of sales in the prior quarter at $789.90 million, evidencing robust demand trends. The forecast revenue of $792.96 million suggests continued momentum into the current quarter, supported by core neurology prescriptions and stable pricing. While the gross margin printed at 66.79% last quarter, investors will look for maintenance within a comparable range as operating leverage and cost controls offset mix and promotional investments. On the bottom line, a projected EPS of $1.91 implies year-over-year growth of 22.25%, which, together with an EBIT forecast of $227.51 million, reflects discipline on operating expenses and a balanced commercialization spend to sustain growth. Any deviation in gross-to-net dynamics, payer mix, or promotional cadence could shift the realized net margin from the prior quarter’s 26.36%, but operating efficiency should keep profitability healthy.
Most promising growth vector: Continued uptake in neurology franchises
The most compelling growth prospects lie in the neurology portfolio, where recurring product demand and expanding treatment duration drive a favorable revenue trajectory. With product sales at $789.90 million last quarter and the company guiding to $792.96 million this quarter, the pipeline of new patient starts and persistency offers a clear growth pathway. The expected year-over-year revenue increase of 26.07% underscores continued breadth of adoption, while the EPS and EBIT forecasts point to scaling benefits as fixed costs are leveraged across a larger revenue base. Investors will monitor prescription trends and any updates on label or geographic expansion that could enhance the addressable market. Should newly launched indications or broader payer access materialize, upside to both revenue and margin performance would be feasible.
Key stock price drivers this quarter: Execution, operating leverage, and visibility
Share performance this quarter will hinge on execution against consensus forecasts and signals on operating leverage into 2026. If the company reports results at or above the projected revenue of $792.96 million and EPS of $1.91 while maintaining gross margins near the prior quarter’s 66.79%, confidence in durability of growth should strengthen. The prior quarter’s outperformance versus expectations (EPS actual $2.04 vs. $1.59 estimated; EBIT actual $239.00 million vs. $199.54 million estimated) creates a higher bar, making guidance commentary and qualitative color on demand patterns especially consequential. Additionally, visibility on capital allocation and R&D cadence, together with clarity on seasonality and inventory normalization, will influence how investors extrapolate margin progression and EPS power into subsequent quarters.
Analyst Opinions
The majority of institutional views skew positive, with most analysts highlighting sustained revenue growth and improving operating leverage into the current quarter. Commentaries emphasize the attractive combination of mid-20% revenue growth (forecast $792.96 million, up 26.07% year over year) and expanding profitability frameworks, reflected in an EBIT forecast of $227.51 million and projected EPS of $1.91. Several well-followed research desks note that Neurocrine Biosciences has outperformed consensus recently, given last quarter’s actual revenue of $794.90 million and adjusted EPS of $2.04 outpacing estimates, reinforcing the stance that execution remains solid. Bullish analysts point to continued demand in core neurological indications, supportive prescription trends, and the potential for incremental contributions from lifecycle management as reasons for positive bias this quarter. They also highlight that the business mix—where product sales of $789.90 million in the last quarter drove the bulk of results—supports margin stability and provides a clearer line of sight for forecasting, which reduces earnings volatility and supports higher confidence in near-term targets. In this context, the prevailing outlook anticipates a constructive print if management’s commentary confirms momentum, with particular attention to sustaining gross margin around the mid-60% range and demonstrating disciplined expense growth to translate revenue gains into EPS expansion.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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