An analysis of the latest gold market trends has been provided.
On July 20th, the fundamental factors affecting gold were analyzed. In early Asian trading on Monday, spot gold experienced a slight decline, trading around $3,995 per ounce. Ongoing tensions between the US and Iran over the weekend, with Israel stating readiness to resume military action against Iran, and the US Energy Secretary indicating continued US military operations against Iran, have heightened geopolitical uncertainty. A global security alert issued by the US State Department has further increased risks, fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations for interest rate hikes, which has limited gold's upside potential. Gold prices rose 1.01% to $4,016.36 per ounce last Friday, having touched their lowest level since June 30th during the session. However, gold still recorded a weekly loss of approximately 2.49%, marking its largest weekly decline in six weeks. The primary reasons were the sustained strength of the US dollar, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers, and escalating US-Iran tensions pushing up energy prices, which exacerbated global inflation worries and solidified market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Technical Analysis of Gold
From a technical perspective, looking at the weekly chart, the overall structure for gold appears weak. Weekly candlesticks have consecutively closed in negative territory, with prices under pressure below all major moving averages. These moving averages have turned downward, forming strong resistance. Minor rebounds have consistently lacked buying support, and intra-week rallies followed by pullbacks have become the norm, with key support levels being breached one after another. There are no signs of a bottom forming on the weekly chart, and the broader bearish trend is established, suggesting further downside potential. Resistance is observed around 4130, with support around 3850. On the daily chart, the downtrend persists. Gold prices are firmly suppressed below the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages, which are arranged in a bearish alignment, creating layered resistance. The Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, with price action hugging the lower band, confirming a clear downtrend. The daily bearish trend is evident, with significant technical pressure, making a strong reversal unlikely in the near term. The overall outlook remains weak, favoring a pattern of volatile, downward consolidation. Resistance is noted in the 4030-4080 zone.
On the 4-hour chart, gold is caught in a pattern of repeated range-bound fluctuations, lacking sustained directional momentum. Prices are oscillating between support and resistance levels, encountering selling pressure upon approaching short-term moving averages and finding modest buying support near key support zones. Neither bulls nor bears have established clear dominance. Moving averages are intertwined and flat, Bollinger Bands are contracting, and the trading range continues to compress. The MACD indicator is oscillating around and below the zero line, with bullish and bearish momentum alternating, showing no clear unilateral signal. Immediate resistance is monitored around 4030. Short-term support is watched at 3960, with crucial support at 3940. A break below 3940 could open the door for further declines. In summary, for today's short-term gold trading, the suggested strategy is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is focused around the 4025-4045 zone, while key short-term support lies around the 3960-3940 zone.
An analysis of the latest crude oil market trends has been provided.
Fundamental factors for crude oil were analyzed on Monday, July 20th (Beijing time). In early Asian trading, the weekend's persistent US-Iran tensions, with Israel stating readiness to resume fighting and the US Energy Secretary confirming continued military action, along with a global security alert from the US State Department, increased geopolitical uncertainty. This fueled inflation concerns and rate hike expectations. Crude oil gapped higher by nearly 3%, touching a one-month high of $84.60 per barrel, and is currently trading around $84.22. Oil prices surged strongly last Friday, climbing to their highest level in over a month. Brent crude futures settled up 3.8% at $88.08 per barrel, while US WTI crude settled up 2.75% at $81.77 per barrel. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since mid-June. For the week, both posted gains of approximately 16%, with Brent marking its third consecutive weekly gain and WTI its second.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil
From a technical perspective on the daily chart, the moving average system is gradually diverging downward, indicating a medium-term objective trend shifting towards a downtrend. Crude oil prices have broken below the lower boundary of a multi-month consolidation range, signaling strengthening bearish momentum. It is anticipated that the medium-term trend will primarily follow a downward rhythm. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, crude oil has maintained a high-level consolidation pattern for four trading sessions. The short-term objective trend has shifted into a consolidation phase, although the primary directional trend remains upward. Momentum shows a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, but the overall underlying rhythm remains largely unchanged. It is expected that intraday crude oil movements are more likely to maintain an upward bias. In summary, for today's crude oil trading, the suggested strategy is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is focused in the 86.0-88.0 zone, while key short-term support lies in the 81.7-80.0 zone.
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