Analysis from EB SECURITIES indicates that China's express delivery industry handled 18.3 billion parcels in May 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.66%. For the period from January to May 2026, total parcel volume reached 82.87 billion, marking a 5.2% growth compared to the same period last year. The research note points to two primary drivers behind the shift from negative to positive unit price growth: firstly, the positive impact of the industry's 'anti-internal competition' measures demonstrates strong sustainability; secondly, the intense price competition from the same period last year had already pushed prices to a relatively low base, setting the stage for the positive turnaround observed in May this year. The industry's CR8 concentration ratio has maintained positive year-on-year growth, reflecting a continued increase in market share for leading companies, whose market positions remained relatively stable in the first quarter of 2026.
Key Findings from the Analysis
Stable Growth in Parcel Volume, Notable Gains in E-commerce Segment
For the overall industry, national express parcel volume in May 2026 was 18.3 billion, up 5.66% year-on-year. Cumulative volume for the first five months of 2026 stood at 82.87 billion parcels, a 5.2% increase. The analysis suggests that active online e-commerce consumption continues to support the fundamental growth rate of parcel volume. This is further bolstered by factors such as national subsidy policies promoting steady consumer market operations and the continued expansion into rural and lower-tier markets, collectively driving the robust upward trend in industry volume.
Within the e-commerce express segment, major companies showed significant month-on-month improvements in year-on-year parcel volume growth rates for May compared to April. Specifically, YTO Express's growth accelerated from +1.23% to +10.60%, Yunda Holdings improved from -4.14% to -0.52%, and STO Express increased from +13.72% to +18.77%.
For the direct-operated express model, SF Holding saw its business volume growth rate decline from -3.0% year-on-year to -4.20%.
Steady Unit Price Increase, 'Anti-Internal Competition' Exceeds Expectations
Industry-wide revenue in May 2026 grew by 9.47% year-on-year, with revenue per parcel increasing by 3.61%. The report reiterates the two key drivers for the positive price shift: the sustained effect of 'anti-internal competition' and the low comparative base from last year's price war.
In the e-commerce segment, the revenue per parcel for YTO Express / Yunda Holdings / STO Express in May 2026 changed by -3.77% / +7.29% / +9.74% year-on-year, respectively. For the January-May period, the changes were -0.75% / +9.37% / +13.43%.
For direct-operated express, SF Holding reported a 4.80% year-on-year increase in revenue per parcel for May, with a 2.83% increase for the first five months. SF Holding is continuously optimizing its parcel mix, and its unit price has turned positive year-on-year, with the effects of its 'Value-Added Plan' gradually becoming apparent.
Industry Concentration Moderates Slightly, Top Firms Maintain Stable Market Share in Q1 2026
From early 2022 to the end of 2024, market share concentration towards leading players progressed slowly due to relatively mild price competition under regulatory oversight.
The industry's CR8 ratio for January-May 2026 was 87.1, a slight increase of 0.1 points year-on-year. Since January 2025, the CR8 has consistently shown positive year-on-year growth, indicating a continued rise in the market share of leading enterprises.
In the e-commerce express sector, the Q1 2026 market shares (by parcel volume) for YTO Express / Yunda Holdings / STO Express / J&T Express were 16.01% / 11.96% / 13.92% / 11.32%, respectively. Compared to Q4 2025, these changed by +0.12 percentage points / -0.02 percentage points / +0.41 percentage points / +0.39 percentage points, indicating relatively stable market shares for leading courier companies in Q1 2026. STO Express merged with Daniao Logistics in November-December 2025. As a leading provider of quality express and reverse logistics services in China, Daniao's integration has directly expanded STO Express's business scope.
In the direct-operated segment, SF Holding achieved a market share of 7.77% in Q1 2026, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points compared to Q4 2025.
Identified Risk Factors
Potential risks include economic fluctuations, changes in industry regulations, irrational market competition, and volatility in fuel prices.
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