On Tuesday, August 12, international spot gold edged lower after reaching a more than two-month high, as market sentiment swung between geopolitical uncertainties and the upcoming release of crucial US inflation data. Although gold prices failed to hold above the 4400 level, they remained near relatively high territory, indicating that the buying support formed after weak employment data has not yet fully dissipated.
Investors are now focusing on Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will directly influence market repricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path and consequently determine the short-term direction of gold. The current gold market is in a typical window of dual macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures. On one hand, last week's unexpectedly weak non-farm payrolls data has significantly reduced expectations for a September rate hike, providing clear interest rate support for gold. On the other hand, the ongoing situation in the Middle East, particularly the uncertain outlook for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, continues to impact gold prices through both oil prices and risk aversion channels. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index has remained relatively stable, and US Treasury yields have fluctuated within a narrow range after an early gain, with the entire market awaiting the inflation data to provide clearer guidance.
From a current technical perspective, although gold has seen a slight pullback after its surge, the overall daily and 4-hour technical structure remains in a relatively strong configuration. While the daily chart recorded gains of over 5% for three consecutive days, hitting a June high of $4,435 per ounce during the session, the late-day sharp decline resulting in a long upper shadow suggests concentrated selling pressure in the $4,400-$4,435 zone. The price remains firmly above the key support at $4,300, and short-term moving averages maintain a bullish alignment, indicating the overall upward structure is intact. However, the short-term Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) red bars are continuously shrinking, signaling a clear need for a short-term corrective pullback. The key technical reference zone is the $4,330-$4,330 area, which serves as a critical defense line for the continuation of this rally. If this range holds, gold retains the momentum to challenge the $4,500 resistance level. If it is decisively broken, the market will enter a period of consolidation, with the next downside target being the $4,330 level, or possibly lower to the $4,285 area.
The 4-hour chart shows gold is in a state of high-level consolidation and repair. After its sharp surge to $4,435, the price pulled back sharply and is now trading narrowly around $4,380. The short-term 5-period and 10-period moving averages have formed a bearish crossover, and the MACD green bars are expanding, clearly indicating a bearish signal in the short term. However, the $4,340-$4,330 zone below provides support from a previous dense trading area. As long as this level is not effectively breached, the overall bullish structure remains unbroken. The short-term bias is for a sideways consolidation to digest gains. If the $4,330 support holds, there is still potential for an upward move towards $4,500. Domestic Shanghai gold accumulation funds are moving in tandem with the external market, trading in a narrow range around 950 yuan per gram. Short-term moving averages are still in a bullish configuration, with clear support around 940 yuan per gram. The short-term trend is expected to follow the external market's consolidation, with no clear trend reversal signal appearing yet.
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