On May 18, international spot gold opened slightly firmer after halting its decline. However, trading below technical resistance, coupled with geopolitical tensions—including former President Trump's military threats toward Iran and U.S.-Israel discussions on resuming military action against Iran—has significantly increased the risk of joint airstrikes. The ongoing stalemate in the Strait issue has boosted crude oil's bullish outlook and heightened inflationary pressures, which are expected to continue weighing on gold prices. Consequently, gold's short-term trend is likely to remain weak, potentially testing the support target at the 200-day moving average again.
During the day, market participants may focus on the U.S. May NAHB Housing Market Index data, with market expectations leaning toward bearish implications for gold. Additionally, a series of U.S. economic data releases this week are generally expected to exert downward pressure on gold. Combined with the current technical outlook, the strategy for gold this week remains biased toward selling on rallies.
Intraday trading reference points are provided below, with specific entry and exit levels to be confirmed based on actual positions:
Gold Intraday Reference: Soaring oil prices are fueling inflation, leading to heightened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Rising U.S. dollar and Treasury yields are diminishing gold's appeal and directly pressuring its price. The recommended trading approach is to focus on selling on rallies. Key resistance levels to watch are $4,566, followed by $4,600 and $4,650. Support is observed at $4,500. A break below this level could open further downside toward $4,400.
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