The second quarter of 2026 has drawn attention, with fund portfolios heavily weighted in semiconductors and photonics showing strong performance.
As the second half of 2026 unfolds, volatility in China's major A-share indices has intensified. The ChiNext Index, for instance, experienced dramatic swings in July, with single-day declines exceeding 7% followed by surges of over 7%. In response to this market turbulence, many securities analysts attribute the recent correction primarily to overseas disturbances and overcrowding in the domestic technology sector, rather than a fundamental shift in core industrial logic. They suggest that with the short-term release of market sentiment, the potential for further downside is limited. Micro-level market liquidity and sentiment could recover at any time, potentially heralding a golden allocation opportunity for A-shares within the year.
In a recent livestream, Wang Guizhong, Director of Big Tech Research at Harvest Fund Management Co., Ltd., also noted that this round of adjustment is more about sentiment digestion after significant gains, not a trend reversal in fundamentals. He emphasized that the current AI cycle is still in its hardware investment phase and the early stages of commercial model monetization. During market turbulence, it remains crucial to trust in the power of technological industry trends. "Looking at history, every technology-led market cycle does not simply return to its starting point; it ascends in a spiral," he remarked.
As a crucial platform serving innovative and entrepreneurial growth companies, the ChiNext Board, established in 2009, has evolved over more than sixteen years through institutional reforms and innovations. It is increasingly becoming a core vehicle for fostering hard technology, cultivating new quality productive forces, and driving industrial transformation and upgrading. A recent opinion issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on deepening ChiNext reform to better serve the development of new quality productive forces outlines systematic measures across eight areas: market positioning, issuance and listing, review and registration, financing and M&A, investment-side reforms, and whole-process supervision. Industry experts believe this deepening reform will help further coordinate the capital market's investment and financing functions, solidify its fundamental, institutional, and capital foundations, and provide new momentum for the "long-term" and "steady progress" of China's equity market.
Regarding the future trajectory of the ChiNext Board, an analysis by Industrial Securities reviewing market behavior following single-day drops of over 5% in the ChiNext Index since 2010, during bull markets, yields two key conclusions. First, the probability of a short-term oversold rebound increases. Second, "bull markets often have sharp corrections"; a single-day plunge does not signal the end of a bull run, as the index's long-term trend still depends on fundamentals. Barring instances like 2015, which lacked fundamental support leading to prolonged weakness, sharp short-term declines often provide buying opportunities for subsequent rallies.
As mid-year financial reports are verified, market performance is expected to align more closely with earnings certainty. From a fundamental perspective, the ChiNext Board overall maintains high景气度, which may provide underlying support for future market strength. According to authoritative media statistics, as of July 23rd, among the 120 ChiNext-listed companies that have released first-half performance forecasts, 90 expect profit growth and 9 expect profitability, meaning a combined 82.5% reported positive news.
Faced with short-term volatility, how should ordinary investors seeking to participate in ChiNext opportunities respond? Wang Guizhong candidly stated that every market decline presents a good opportunity for introspection and decision-making. Regarding investment approach, he continues to advocate for "systematic investment, long-term investment, and contrarian investment": anchor to long-term industry trends, maintain patience, use methods like fund systematic investment plans and分批逢低布局 to smooth out costs, and avoid rushing in at peaks or exiting at lows.
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