As of October 26, looking at the current market news, the core drivers for gold prices remain the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, the movement of the US dollar index, and overall market risk sentiment.
At this stage, the market continues to debate the timing and magnitude of Fed rate cuts; if inflation data comes in stronger than expected, rate cut expectations will be pushed back, which would lift the dollar and pressure gold; conversely, only if rate cut expectations heat up will gold receive bullish support. Recently, no large-scale geopolitical conflicts have erupted globally, safe-haven buying remains broadly weak, and there is a lack of strong bullish catalysts.
Before key data such as CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and major Fed officials' speeches are released and expectations shift significantly, the bearish technical structure in gold will dominate; short-term price rebounds are more about recovery after an oversold move and do not yet provide a basis for a trend reversal.
On the daily chart, since gold fell back from the 4696 high, highs have continued to move lower and the main downtrend structure remains intact, with the market's center of gravity steadily sinking; this is a deep correction phase. After recently probing the 3975 low, the decline has temporarily paused, with the current price near 4005. The short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages sit above the price and directly cap rebounds, while the 60-day and 100-day moving averages are further elevated, forming layer upon layer of resistance. Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the price has pulled back to the lower band to find support, which only provides a stabilization signal; the channel pattern has not turned.
The daily MACD is running below the zero line with a bearish alignment of the two lines; although the green histogram has not continued to expand, there is no golden cross or turn to red, indicating that the daily-level bearish environment has not changed and the broader trend remains bearish. This is only a phased pause after a series of declines.
On the 4-hour chart, gold has fallen step by step from the 4696 high, with both highs and lows moving lower in tandem, which is a standard corrective wave. After touching the low near 3975, the price halted its decline and entered low-level consolidation. The 4-hour moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with the 60-hour and 100-hour moving averages continuing to press down; Bollinger Bands are broadly diverging downward, and the price is oscillating above the lower band.
Fibonacci retracement levels clearly mark the resistance ladder for rebounds: 4104 (0.786) and 4230 (0.618) are the core thresholds that determine the nature of the rebound. The 4-hour MACD is flattening below the zero line, with bearish momentum slowing, but no effective golden cross has formed, meaning this cycle is only seeing a slowdown in the pace of decline; bulls have not yet taken control of the swing.
On the 1-hour chart, after the price rapidly sold off to the 3975 low, the concentrated bearish release ended, and the hourly chart formed an oversold rebound structure. Short-term moving averages are intertwined, with the first resistance at the Bollinger middle band at 4034 (corresponding to the 0.236 Fibonacci level), followed by resistance at 4061, 4087, and 4113; the key support is the 3975 low. The 1-hour MACD has already formed a golden cross at a low level, with red histogram bars appearing, giving short-term bulls some repair strength.
However, the rebound on this timeframe is a price pullback after a sharp decline, with dense moving average and Fibonacci resistance overhead. The golden cross appears within a downtrend, so it is a rebound signal, not a reversal signal. Once it is capped at key resistance, it can easily turn into a bearish cross again and pull back.
Overall, the current structure is still bearish-dominated. For the market to shift from weak to strong, it needs to be validated layer by layer: first, the hourly chart must hold above 4034 to open room to test 4061; further, the 4-hour level needs a volume-backed breakout and a firm hold above 4104 to drive a 4-hour MACD golden cross; ultimately, the daily chart needs to reclaim the 5-day and 10-day moving averages and turn the daily MACD red before there is a chance to reverse this decline.
Short-term dividing line: 4034 on the upside is the first checkpoint for the strength of the short-term rebound, while 3975 on the downside is the lifeline of this repair phase. If 3975 is effectively broken, this rebound will be declared a failure, the bearish trend will restart, and the downside will further test support near 3947; if the rebound continues but cannot break through the strong resistance at 4104, it will likely stall and pull back in the resistance zone, maintaining the broader downtrend.
Trading suggestions: a pullback to around 3990 can be used to establish long positions, with a stop loss at 3972, first target 4028, second target 4058; if gold rebounds to around 4028 and shows signs of pressure, short positions can be established, with a stop loss at 4035, first target 3990, second target 3975. Contingency plan: if the price effectively breaks below 3975, follow the trend with short positions, stop loss at 3982, target 3947.
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