"Gold is money, everything else is credit." J.P. Morgan famously told the U.S. Congress this over a century ago. Today, the metal's powerful rally threatens the returns investors have grown accustomed to extracting from U.S. equities.
Following a stellar performance in 2025, gold has maintained its robust momentum into 2026. Despite a minor pullback due to eased trade tensions related to Greenland, the precious metal hit a fresh record high this week, pushing its year-to-date gains close to 12%. In stark contrast, the S&P 500 has managed a gain of only about 1%.
Charles Gave, founder of the research firm Gavekal Research, highlighted in a Thursday report on assets to avoid in 2026 that gold's ascent poses a problem for the S&P 500.
He posits that for the past three years, investors only needed to hold U.S. stocks and gold. However, this model portfolio becomes less effective under one specific condition—when gold outperforms the S&P 500, as observed since the beginning of last year—because this scenario also tends to weaken the U.S. dollar.
He explains that this is problematic because "foreign investors always hold excess dollars that they must invest, at least temporarily. For some time, holding U.S. Treasuries or dollar cash has been unattractive. But, as long as gold underperformed U.S. stocks, they could happily invest in U.S. equities with relative advantages. This meant buying the market-cap-weighted S&P 500. And this did not affect the dollar."
Now, however, with gold taking the lead, three events typically unfold: the dollar declines, the S&P 500 equal-weight index outperforms the market-cap-weighted S&P 500, and U.S. stocks underperform international equities.
This leads him to believe that U.S. "exceptionalism" has reached its end. Since the S&P 500 is no longer outperforming gold, an ideal investment portfolio for 2026 will look different from those of recent years.
He concludes, "For investors, the time has come to use their holdings of the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 as a source of cash to buy: 1) Asian ex-Japan equities; 2) Chinese equities; 3) European industrial stocks; and 4) the S&P 500 equal-weight index."
In a post shared on his Facebook page, author and frequently cited financial commentator Robert Kiyosaki urged his followers to pay attention to the soaring prices of precious metals. Kiyosaki argues that the skyrocketing prices of gold, silver, and even copper reflect a significant loss of trust in the stock market among today's investors.
According to Kiyosaki's analysis, this isn't merely a rotation of funds from one investment type to another; it's a sign that investors are exiting the market and losing confidence.
"Hard assets are starting to move up in unison. Industrial metals, precious metals, growth and fear are walking together... This means the system is under stress. Markets are no longer pricing for profit, they are pricing for credibility... Smart money is no longer arguing about sector rotation, it is leaving the casino. Stocks are promises, bonds are promises, currencies are promises. Metals are not. Gold requires no trust, silver requires no policy, copper requires no confidence. They are used, they are needed, they are real," he added.
Kiyosaki ended his lengthy post by reminding his followers that it is time to build resilience by holding tangible, useful assets—and to be prepared, not panicked, because "preparation has always been the quiet advantage of the rich."
The author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" and related series has long been an advocate for investing in precious metals. While critics may find his views repetitive, Kiyosaki has seen at least one recent prediction come true.
In May 2025, Kiyosaki posted on X predicting that the price of silver could rise from "current" levels around $35 to potentially "$70" by 2026. The current spot price of silver has now surpassed $98 per ounce.
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