Abstract
Seres Group will report first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, 2026 post-Market, with investors tracking revenue, profitability, margins, and per-share earnings versus management indications and quarter-to-date sales momentum.Market Forecast
Consensus points to Seres Group delivering RMB 87.63 billion in revenue this quarter, implying 7.03% year-over-year growth, alongside an estimated EBIT of RMB 9.50 billion (up 21.79% year over year) and adjusted EPS of RMB 6.69 (up 35.22% year over year). No formal guidance for gross profit margin or net profit margin has been indicated in the dataset; investors therefore center their expectations on revenue, EBIT, and EPS realizations. The core automobile business is expected to anchor the top line at roughly RMB 87.63 billion for the quarter, supported by sequential delivery normalization into March and an improving mix relative to February softness. The most promising growth driver remains the new energy vehicle portfolio, which achieved 88,445 unit sales in the quarter through March 31, 2026, up 29% year over year, providing a tangible base for revenue uplift and operating leverage.Last Quarter Review
In the preceding quarter, Seres Group generated RMB 54.52 billion in revenue (up 41.43% year over year), reported a gross profit margin of 27.47% and a net profit margin of 1.18%, posted GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 644.00 million, and recorded adjusted EPS of RMB 0.34 (down 73.23% year over year). Quarter on quarter, net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 72.83%, reflecting a step-down that sharpened focus on pricing discipline, cost execution, and mix improvement into the new quarter. The automobile business constituted essentially all company revenue in the period, with total revenue of RMB 54.52 billion increasing 41.43% year over year as expanded deliveries and a richer product mix offset cost headwinds.Current Quarter Outlook
Core Business Trajectory
Seres Group’s central objective this quarter is translating solid quarter-to-date sales normalization into the guided revenue and earnings profile. The company’s revenue forecast of RMB 87.63 billion implies 7.03% year-over-year growth, which is consistent with the quarter’s reported vehicle sales cadence: a strong January, a weaker February, and a March recovery culminating in first-quarter unit sales up 29% year over year. That unit expansion sets up a credible pathway for operating leverage, especially given the projected EBIT of RMB 9.50 billion, which implies 21.79% year-over-year growth and suggests a recovery in contribution margin per vehicle relative to last quarter’s margin compression.The bridge from last quarter’s 27.47% gross margin and 1.18% net margin to this quarter’s EBIT and EPS targets will likely depend on realized price/mix and manufacturing utilization rates. Price stability after promotional intensity in February should help the contribution margin per unit, and a more favorable mix in March points to reduced reliance on tactical discounts into quarter-end. With unit volumes improving into late quarter, fixed-cost dilution should be more favorable than in the prior period, while direct material and logistics efficiencies can provide incremental margin relief if supplier terms and production cadence stabilize.
Investors will watch for signs that sequential gross margin trend is bottoming to support the EBIT trajectory implied by guidance. If the company sustains higher throughput and a richer mix through the quarter, the gap between revenue growth (+7.03% YoY) and EBIT growth (+21.79% YoY) could be explained by operating leverage and reduced promotional drag. Conversely, any renewed need for aggressive tactical pricing would likely pressure the implied EBIT uplift and put greater weight on volume outperformance to meet earnings per share estimates.
Most Promising Business: New Energy Vehicle Lineup
Quarter-to-date operational disclosures indicate that Seres Group sold 45,948 vehicles in January 2026 (up 105% year over year), 15,013 in February (down 30% year over year), and 27,484 in March (up 12% year over year), resulting in 88,445 units for the three months ended March 31, 2026, up 29% year over year. Within that cadence, new energy vehicle sales growth outpaced total company growth in several months, underpinning the company’s revenue and EBIT outlook. This momentum, when paired with the projected revenue of RMB 87.63 billion and EBIT of RMB 9.50 billion for the quarter, suggests the new energy portfolio remains a principal driver of both top-line expansion and margin recovery.The important lens for this sub-business is mix quality: vehicles with higher average selling prices tend to deliver better unit economics, amplifying the benefit of volume growth. March’s rebound in year-over-year unit sales, following February’s trough, reinforces the premise that a stabilized pricing environment and improved showroom traffic can lift realized ASPs and contribution margins. Coupled with more predictable production scheduling, this pattern provides a feasible backdrop for the estimated 35.22% year-over-year growth in adjusted EPS to be achieved if the sales mix remains favorable through the reporting cut-off.
Execution risks stay centered on the alignment of deliveries with pricing discipline. The unit growth rate of 29% for the three months through March is a favorable indicator for revenue, yet margin expression often hinges on how much of that growth is attributable to higher-trim configurations versus volume-driving variants. If a higher proportion of quarterly deliveries were higher-value trims, EBIT expansion can surpass revenue growth, consistent with the 21.79% year-over-year EBIT estimate. If the mix skewed toward volume drivers with heavier incentives, the company may still meet revenue expectations but face tighter overhead absorption and thinner gross-to-EBIT conversion.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The dominant stock driver into and through the print is the company’s ability to land near the RMB 87.63 billion revenue estimate and deliver EBIT near RMB 9.50 billion without sacrificing pricing integrity. A realized EPS outcome tracking close to RMB 6.69—35.22% higher year over year—would signal that margin pressures seen last quarter have abated, thanks to both operating leverage and improved mix. The quality of the earnings print will be judged not only by the headline figures but also by the degree to which gross margin recovers from last quarter’s 27.47% and whether net profitability trends better than the 1.18% net margin baseline, even if formal margin guidance is not provided.A second near-term driver is the intra-quarter sales cadence beyond March, particularly April order intake and deliveries versus the January–March run rate. While the company reported a February dip in unit sales, the swift March recovery and the quarter’s net 29% year-over-year increase provide a constructive starting point. If April’s trading update shows continued normalization or acceleration from March, it would reinforce the revenue trajectory and buttress sentiment around the EBIT and EPS delivery implied by estimates.
A third valuation lever is management’s commentary on cost structure and cash discipline. Although the data set does not disclose cash flow, investors will still extrapolate the durability of EBIT growth to implied cash generation, making any disclosure on procurement savings, logistics optimization, and manufacturing throughput impactful. If these levers are tracking to plan, the market may place more confidence in the sustainability of earnings beyond this quarter, particularly given the step-down in net profit last quarter and the implied need for operating improvements to lift margins from that trough.
Analyst Opinions
Across the January to April news flow, the balance of published views skews bullish based on monthly sales disclosures and performance commentary, with two supportive items for every one cautious item. The bullish side highlights the swift sales normalization from February’s weaker base to March’s year-over-year growth and the full-quarter unit increase of 29% year over year to 88,445 vehicles, which together align with revenue of RMB 87.63 billion and EBIT of RMB 9.50 billion implied by quarterly estimates. Market commentators also noted on March 30, 2026 that full-year 2025 attributable profit edged up and a final dividend was proposed, which investors read as a signal of improving financial resilience; taken alongside the quarter-to-date sales trajectory, this strengthened the constructive stance into the quarterly print.Bullish previews currently emphasize three points. First, the projected earnings cadence—EPS estimated at RMB 6.69, up 35.22% year over year—assumes healthy mix and overhead absorption, both of which are consistent with March’s rebound and the three-month unit growth. Second, EBIT growth of 21.79% year over year exceeds revenue growth, indicating operating leverage potential if promotional intensity stays contained relative to the February trough. Third, the prior quarter’s net margin of 1.18% and net profit step-down provide a relatively low comparison base, increasing the probability that sequential profit metrics improve if pricing action remains measured and production cadence holds.
This constructive view also underscores what would validate the bull case at the print. A revenue outcome close to RMB 87.63 billion, paired with a discernible rebound in gross margin from 27.47%, would corroborate that the company is monetizing the quarter-to-date volume base with better mix economics. If EBIT delivery is within a narrow band of RMB 9.50 billion and management commentary points to stable or easing discounting conditions versus February, analysts are likely to argue that the margin trough is behind the company and that the pathway to more normalized profitability is taking shape.
On balance, the majority stance tilts positive ahead of April 29, 2026. It is grounded in the arithmetic of unit sales reported through March 31, the implied operating leverage between revenue and EBIT estimates, and the potential for margins to recover from last quarter’s compression. While the February slowdown is a reminder that execution remains central to the thesis, the aggregate of disclosures through March and the earnings-estimate framework favor a bullish interpretation of the upcoming quarter.
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